Bracketology: Projected No. 1 seeds – Dayton edges San Diego State for last top seed

Bracketology update projecting the No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament is kind to a pair of mid-majors and Big 12 teams.

This is March and the madness has definitely arrived.

Forget about waiting until the conference tournaments and the NCAA Tournament later this month for the madness to get underway. This season has been utter chaos with seemingly no team wanting to wear the crown as the No. 1 team in the nation.

Baylor held the crown for five weeks before losing it to Kansas who was nearly the only top-10 team who didn’t suffer a loss last week.

With seeding up for grabs and NCAA Tournament berths hanging in the balance the final week of the regular season, one of the most compelling is the race for the four No. 1 seeds.

Much like the College Football Playoff often comes down to deciding who the fourth team is and who the fifth team is that will be left in the cold, the No. 1 seeds will have a very thin line separating the fourth from the fifth team in contention.

Kansas – There isn’t much debate in the way for the No. 1 overall seed with the way Bill Self‘s Kansas Jayhawks have played down the stretch. Kansas has won 14 straight games entering Wednesday’s game vs. TCU and should be the favorite to win the national championship. Devon Dotson and Udoka Azubuike represent the top duo in the nation and appear to be peaking at the perfect time. Kansas should have the No. 1 seed in the Indianapolis region. Kansas is the top team in the NET rankings, KenPom, as well as the AP No. 1.

Gonzaga – The Bulldogs get the next No. 1 seed after going 29-2 and winning the WCC. The Zags dropped a game to BYU but that wasn’t enough to drop them off the one-line with the other contenders suffering some losses to end their bid. Mark Few’s club is No. 2 in NET and KenPom rankings and holds a slight lead on Dayton for the No. 2 ranking in the AP Poll. Could this finally be the year Gonzaga wins it all after coming close several times? If so, it’ll be the nation’s most efficient offense leading the way.

Baylor – Despite a three-point loss to TCU over the weekend, Baylor holds on for a No. 1 seed. The Bears have been the No. 1 team in the nation longer than any other team in the nation this year. Scott Drew’s team isn’t a lock because a loss to either Texas Tech or West Virginia in the final week could drop the Bears to the two-line. Baylor is No. 4 in the AP and Coaches Polls, No. 3 in KenPom and No. 5 in the NET ranking.

Dayton – This is where things get tough. There are five teams vying for the four No. 1 seeds and the final spot will come down to San Diego State and Dayton. Obi Toppin is a candidate to win the National Player of the Year for the Flyers and could be a top-five pick in the NBA Draft. Dayton comes in in front of San Diego State in the AP Poll, Coaches Poll and NET rankings but are one spot below in KenPom. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has Dayton on the two-line with San Diego State getting a one-seed in his latest Bracketology update. Dayton’s lost twice this year, both on neutral courts, to Colorado by two and to Kansas by six.

Next up: San Diego State – After starting the season 25-0, the Aztecs dropped a home game to UNLV who may not make the Tournament. That’s the deciding factor in the projections this week. Ultimately, the way the two teams play in their conference tournaments will determine which team gets the last No. 1 seed. And if Baylor loses again, the door is open for both Dayton and San Diego State to earn a No. 1 seed and have mid-majors representing three-fourths of the top seeds this year.

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