Could Jordan Howard be a top-10 fantasy running back in 2020?

Jordan Howard has been a sneaky producer during his career, but as he gets set to hit free agency could he be a top-10 fantasy running back in 2020?

Through Week 9 last season, Philadelphia Eagles running back Jordan Howard was RB13 in standard scoring fantasy leagues and RB16 in full-point PPR. But a shoulder injury sidelined him until Week 17, when was active but did not register a touch.

Howard finished second in the NFL in rushing yards as a rookie with the Chicago Bears in 2016 (1,313 yards), as he finished as RB9 in standard fantasy leagues (RB10 in full-point PPR). He was a top-20 fantasy back for full-point PPR in 2017 and 2018 too, despite never reaching 30 receptions in his career.

Howard is now set to become a free agent. Despite professing very early in the offseason that he hopes to be back with the Eagles, the presence of Miles Sanders and Philadelphia’s tendency toward committee backfields puts a ceiling on everyone’s fantasy prospects.

But if Howard landed elsewhere, with a clear opportunity to start, he has sneaky RB1 upside..

Howard had at least 250 carries in each of his first three NFL seasons, and he has scored at least seven total touchdowns in all four of his campaigns. He’ll probably never be a pass-catching maven, but 10.3 yards per catch and 6.0 yards per target back in his rookie season points to him being able to offer a little more there.

Despite missing six games last year, Howard had 22 red zone carries,12 carries inside the 10-yard line and 10 carries inside the 5-yard line. In each of the last two seasons, he has cashed in touchdowns on more than 41 percent of his carries inside the 10.

The Houston Texans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers stand out as two teams who can give Howard a nice contract in free agency, and put him in line for 250-300 carries next season as their lead back.

Let’s project Howard, toward an optimistic end based on a big role for a new team, this way for 2020: 265 carries, 1,100 yards, eight touchdowns; 35 receptions for 295 yards, one touchdown. 

In a standard scoring league that projects him at 193.5 fantasy points, which would have made him RB10 in that format last year. Even if you’re not buying in quite to that level, a top-20 finish feels certain for Howard in 2020 no matter the scoring format. His ADP will be worth watching when drafts get closer, but at this early stage Howard screams value with a decent floor and upside that is sure to be overlooked.