Invasion of the bid snatchers: 4 bubble teams that can win its conference tournament

UCLA is one of four bubble teams who can win its conference tournament and steal a bid to make the NCAA Tournament despite a questionable resume.

The conference tournament season is always fun for fans and angst-ridden for teams sitting firmly on the bubble.

Failing to win your league’s automatic bid to the dance leaves a program at the mercy of the selection committee, hoping that their resume is good enough to merit a ticket to dance.

The bubble is never a fun place to be and it gets even more despondent when bids get stolen by programs that wouldn’t otherwise get in if they didn’t win their conference tournament to get the automatic bid.

There are four teams who could snatch a bid, beginning with the UCLA Bruins who have recently turned their lost season around and have a pulse in a winnable Pac-12.

UCLA

There may not be a scarier potential bid thief out there than UCLA. A brutal non-conference season that saw the Bruins lose to Hofstra, North Carolina, and Cal State Fullerton sank UCLA’s chances of an at-large. A loss at Arizona State on Feb. 6 dropped the Bruins to 12-11 and 5-5 in the Pac-12.

UCLA hasn’t lost since, picking up a ton of big wins along the way, including a season sweep of Arizona as well as victories at Colorado and over Arizona State. All of that excellent work has put the Bruins into first place in the conference, but it has only resulted in a 76 NET rating, which would be a marginal figure for an at-large team.

The Bruins know that they have to win the Pac-12 Tournament to secure their ticket to the dance, and they are one of the hottest teams in the country, so it can definitely happen. The prospect of a red-hot UCLA seizing the Pac-12’s automatic bid ahead of other sure-fire tournament teams like Arizona, Oregon, or Colorado is a bubble squad’s worst nightmare.

If UCLA tops USC on Saturday, they will secure the Pac-12’s top overall seed in the conference tournament and a first-round bye, meaning they need to win one less game to steal a bid. That significantly enhances UCLA’s potential to secure the Pac-12’s automatic bid.

Arkansas

The SEC is the home to our second potential bid thief, and they are the Arkansas Razorbacks. A look at the resume of Arkansas isn’t that impressive, with the Razorbacks entering Saturday’s game at Texas A&M with a 7-10 conference record and 11 losses overall.

Arkansas’ net rating of 43 is a bubble worthy figure, but the Razorbacks barely challenged themselves outside of SEC play. A non-conference strength of schedule rating of 176 won’t cut it since Arkansas’ most notable wins outside the SEC came against a fellow bubbler in Indiana and a TCU team that has since fallen off the bubble.

One factor that is working in Arkansas’ favor, however, is the fact that their worst stretch of basketball came without guard Isaiah Joe, who missed five games with a knee injury in February. The Razorbacks lost all five, meaning they are 19-6 when Joe is on the floor.

The SEC is also lacking a truly dominant force with Kentucky showing its vulnerability at various points of the season. Auburn is a threat, but if Joe and Mason Jones get hot Arkansas could well win the SEC and take a dance ticket away from another bubble squad.

Rhode Island

For most of the season, the Atlantic 10 has been about one team and one team only: Dayton. Led by National Player of the Year candidate Obi Toppin, the Flyers are one win away from a perfect regular season in the A-10, which is mighty impressive in today’s age of college basketball.

There are pundits who have argued that Dayton should be on the one line, so even if the Flyers lose in the A-10 tournament they will make the dance. There isn’t another slam dunk lock to make the field out of the A-10, so anybody who can knock off Dayton in the conference tournament will be taking a bid away from a bubble squad.

The most likely contender to steal a bid in the A-10 is Rhode Island, which has shown it can beat solid competition this year by scoring wins over fellow bubble teams like Alabama and Providence in the non-conference schedule. The Rams got blown out twice by Dayton in the regular season, but they are in line for the A-10’s third seed, which would mean avoiding a third matchup with the Flyers until the finals.

There is also the possibility that someone else could trip up Dayton in the A-10 tournament, which would open the door for Rhode Island to claim the automatic bid even without topping the Flyers. A Rams’ dance ticket would definitely knock someone out of the running.

Utah State

The next prime contender to steal a bid is Utah State, which is the second-best team in the Mountain West. The league’s top dog is San Diego State, which was the last remaining undefeated team in the country and a contender for the top line on Selection Sunday.

That wasn’t expected to be the case this year with Utah State fresh off an NCAA Tournament appearance and featuring a loaded roster. An early-season injury to Neemias Queta, the Aggies’ best player, disrupted Utah State’s rotation.

Queta has taken a while to get back into form, and the Aggies have taken some lumps in conference play, losing to teams like Air Force and New Mexico. As a result, Utah State’s resume is squarely on the bubble and there is a real chance they are either playing in Dayton or miss the field entirely.

Winning the Mountain West would change that and turn a potential bubble bid into an automatic one. This would also have the side effect of sending San Diego State into the at large pool, shrinking the bubble by one. The Aggies rank 40th according to KenPom.

Whose bubbles could burst as a result of these bid thieves?

The teams that would be most hurt by bid thieves are the squads closest to the actual cut line. Rhode Island and Utah State fit here as well if they don’t steal their own bids.

Indiana, Purdue, NC State, USC, Stanford, Cincinnati and Wichita State could also be vulnerable.

Any team that sees itself in a last four in or first four out on Joe Lunardi’s bracketology report will be sweating out Selection Sunday if one of these bid thieves is successful.

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