Texas basketball: Will big buyout, potential NCAA Tournament berth save Shaka Smart?

Shaka Smart arrived at Texas basketball as one of the hottest coaches in college Now he needs an NCAA Tournament bid to have a chance to keep his job.

When Texas hired Shaka Smart away from VCU they thought they’d set their program on a path towards perennial national title contention. Instead, Smart has struggled mightily to achieve national relevance in Austin.

The fact Smart has exactly zero NCAA Tournament wins at Texas really tells you all you need to know about his job security. His hot seat was scorching mid-season when it looked like a certainty he would be fired. Longhorns’ Athletic Director Chris Del Conte is desperate to upgrade his program. It’s worth noting that he’s not the administrator that brought Smart to Austin. He certainly can make a case that Smart needs to be fired this offseason if he doesn’t make an extended NCAA Tournament run.

To make a big postseason run, Smart has to get his team into this year’s Big Dance. As of Saturday night’s action, the Longhorns were one of ESPN Bracketology’s “Last Four In.” To put it mildly, Texas has zero margin for error if they want to secure an at-large berth. Racking up a couple of wins in the Big 12 Tournament might be the difference between an NCAA Tournament berth and a crushing NIT bid for Smart’s team.

Simply getting in won’t be enough for Smart to save his job. His time in Austin has lacked the magic that defined his time at VCU. The only havoc he’s generated at Texas has been with fans who wanted to see him achieve the same kind of success in the Big 12 that he did in the A-10.

Don’t think for a moment that Smart’s reported $10.5 million buyout will be a large factor in Del Conte’s decision-making process. Texas is one of the select few intercollegiate athletic programs that turn a profit regularly. Longhorn officials will likely believe they can overcome that buyout with an increase in fan optimism after hiring a new coach. Del Conte will retain Smart if he believes he’s the right long-term man for the job. He will not pass on making a change for financial issues.

That puts Smart in the unenviable position of needing to make a strong run in March Madness to save his job. The only way he can really feel comfortable about the prospects of remaining at Texas next season is to survive the Tournament’s opening weekend. Winning a play-in game isn’t going to change the long-term prospects of the Longhorns program. Making it all the way to the Sweet 16 might give Texas basketball the injection of energy they need to come out of their current period of malaise.

That makes Smart one of the people with the most riding on in this year’s March Madness. First, he needs to make sure his Texas team secures an invite to the Big Dance. Then he needs to propel the Longhorns to a memorable run. That’s the only way he’ll save his job at one of college sport’s premier programs.

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