Tom Brady’s free agency, Tua Tagovailoa’s draft stock and more
NFL free agency is going to be wild, led by Tom Brady and Jadeveon Clowney. The NFL Draft could be even crazier. The offseason is about to heat up.
Is it alright to admit I didn’t know what to write about this week?
This is always one of the tougher columns to gameplan for. The NFL Draft is still six weeks away, with the Senior Bowl and Scouting Combine behind us and pro days not yet rolling along.
As for free agency, we’re a week from the action. Excited to get the party started, but still far from the juice. It’s torture.
So instead of driving 500 words of nonsense into your skull on Monday morning, from here to the power rankings are some thoughts to chew on.
Teams spend dumb money far more than smart money. Every year, some organization goes out and blows $200 million on free agents. They parade each guy out like they won the lottery, but really, the players won and the team invested in sunk costs. Almost annually, the offseason champion looks like a dope in 18-24 months.
Don’t buy flash, buy off the rack. The best investments in free agency are typically the second-tier players coming off their rookie deals. Still young enough to play good football for another three years, and not costing enough to hamper roster construction. Occasionally, the big-ticket item pays off.
The Kansas City Chiefs are an example having landed Tyrann Mathieu on a three-year, $42 million deal last March. However, they also signed right tackle Mitch Schwartz for five years and $30 million in 2016. Huge impact, second-tier money.
One right move can make a difference. I’ve been crushing big spenders in the first two points, but there’s a reason teams do it. Mathieu is a great example. Peyton Manning is a unique case but certainly qualifies. The Patriots have swung big and landed as well throughout the past two decades. The misses outnumber the hits by a wide margin, but the hits can alter history.
The draft is where value is, throughout seven-round and beyond. Free agency provides general managers with players who have proven track records. They’ve shown what they can, and sometimes more importantly, what they can’t do. The draft’s history shows about a 50 percent bust rate in the first round, and a sharp increase in the following six rounds.
However, a good or great draft class can set up a team for years. Hitting on picks come Days 2 and 3, along with undrafted free agents, is the easiest way to build a contender while maintaining financial flexibility. Hit on a first-round choice, and you have cheap labor for five years plus two years of tags if need be. Land a star in rounds 2-7, and the same logic applies, just make it four years and the tags. It’s a crapshoot, but it’s also a gold mine.
Hey, only one more week until the signings start flying.
Power rankings
Top 10 free-agent busts of all-time
1. 2009 – Albert Haynesworth, Washington Redskins (seven years, $100 million)
2. 2016 – Brock Osweiler, Houston Texans (four years, $72 million)
3. 2003 – David Boston, San Diego Chargers (seven years, $47 million)
4. 1996 – Larry Brown, Oakland Raiders (five years, $12.5 million)
5. 2008 – Javon Walker, Oakland Raiders (six years, $55 million)
6. 1994 – Scott Mitchell, Detroit Lions (three years, $11 million)
7. 2011 – Nnamdi Asomugha, Philadelphia Eagles (five years, $60 million)
8. 1998 – Dana Stubblefield, Washington Redskins (six years, $36 million)
9. 2012 – Matt Flynn, Seattle Seahawks (three years, $26 million)
10. 2013 – Dannell Ellerbe, Miami Dolphins (five years, $35 million)
Quotable
"“Conley has been good for us. I probably wouldn’t be able to answer that specific question, but we like Gareon Conley, if that answers your question. We like what he brings to the table.”"
– Houston Texans head coach/GM Bill O’Brien on exercising Gareon Conley’s fifth-year option
If the Texans are going to stay atop the AFC South, O’Brien needs to be better at both his jobs.
Last season, the Texans traded a third-round pick to the Oakland Raiders for Conley. If they don’t exercise his option, that’s a horrendous message about his perceived value after sending away a top-100 choice.
Houston has $61 million in cap space this offseason but doesn’t have a first-round draft pick after trading it to the Miami Dolphins for left tackle Laremy Tunsil. And while the Texans can be aggressive in free agency, they need to extend Deshaun Watson. They should also sign nose tackle D.J. Reader before he hits the market next week, but that’s becoming more unlikely by the day.
O’Brien has his critics — this writer among them — but a strong offseason would go a long way towards quieting the noise. It should start with the easy decisions of Conley’s option being exercised and keeping Reader in town.
Podcast
Random stat
The Seattle Seahawks own the worst offensive performance in NFL history, gaining -7 yards against the Los Angeles Rams in a 1979 game at the Kingdome.
Info learned this week
1. Brady remains the first domino, but the news is slow
Tom Brady could sign with the New England Patriots. He could also sign about 10 other places.
Brady, 42, is technically nine days away from hitting free agency for the first time. He’s seven days from the tampering period, which potentially begins one of the wildest chases for a player in NFL history. We’re talking helicopters and choppers galore.
If you’re the betting type, Vegas still believes a reunion with Bill Belichick and Co. is the most likely outcome. Sportsbooks have Brady at -150 to return to the Patriots, while the Titans come in at (+500). The Raiders and Chargers are next, tied for third place at (+600). The Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys and Dolphins have the longest posted odds at (+3300).
Between now and the 16th, plenty of smoke will emerge from Brady’s camp and other teams hoping to gain an edge through leaking stories to the media.
Ultimately, nobody knows, which is why Brady’s decision is so captivating.
2. Tag deadline, CBA vote comes Friday afternoon
The franchise tag madness comes to end on Friday afternoon, but it could be chaotic.
Currently, teams are allowed to use both the franchise tag and transition tag this offseason due to a loophole in the Collective Bargaining Agreement. The deadline to use those tags? March 12.
However, the proposed CBA — already agreed on by the owners — is also due for a majority vote from the NFL Players Association on March 12. Should it pass, and it’s expected to, the new agreement immediately goes into effect. It also means only one tag can be applied to this offseason.
Again, madness.
We ran down the list last week, but here’s a quick refresher on who is likely to be tagged by their respective teams before the deadline:
- Chris Jones – Kansas City Chiefs
- Yannick Ngakoue – Jacksonville Jaguars
- Hunter Henry – Los Angeles Chargers
- A.J. Green – Cincinnati Bengals
- Shaquil Barrett – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys
- Ryan Tannehill – Tennessee Titans
- Justin Simmons – Denver Broncos
- Arik Armstead – San Francisco 49ers
- Bud Dupree – Pittsburgh Steelers
- Brandon Scherff – Washington Redskins
- Matthew Judon – Baltimore Ravens
- Leonard Williams – New York Giants
Others players are also potential tag candidates — think Jameis Winston, Amari Cooper and Derrick Henry — but those teams already have their tag spoken for above. Left tackle Anthony Castonzo of the Indianapolis Colts is another possibility.
This week sets up to be weird and wild in the franchise tag department.
3. Prescott would be wise to turn down Cowboys’ latest offer
The Cowboys reportedly offered Prescott $105 million guaranteed with $33 million annually. Incredibly, it’s not enough.
Prescott is due for a new deal this offseason. If he doesn’t sign before March 12, the Cowboys will undoubtedly slap the tag on him, leaving Cooper and cornerback Byron Jones to hit free agency. While Jones is almost certainly gone regardless, the chance of losing Cooper to free agency after trading a first-round pick for him in 2018 is an embarrassing situation for owner Jerry Jones.
What does that have to do with Prescott? The former Mississippi State star has all the leverage. Dallas wants to get a deal done immediately with Prescott to open up the tag for Cooper, ensuring both remain in town. This is the moment for Prescott to press Jones, forcing him to go above the $35 million per year threshold, making him the highest-paid quarterback in the game. Heck, Jared Goff is coming at $34 million annually.
The guaranteed money is significant, but it’s not going to go away. Hell, the number might go up this spring after Patrick Mahomes and Watson sign their expected extensions. Mahomes will reset the market, and Watson won’t be far behind.
It’s an impossible thought, turning down $105 million guaranteed. Yet it’s the wise business move by Prescott in many aspects.
4. Tua’s race to the draft begins Monday
At the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis, Tua Tagovailoa gave us an important date. March 9.
The former Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback has been rehabbing a dislocated and fractured hip for months and told the gathered NFL media he’s scheduled to hear the all-systems-go signal from his medical team on that date.
Should Tagovailoa be cleared, he has exactly one month until his scheduled pro day on April 9, two weeks prior to the draft. For the kid’s sake, hopefully, everything goes according to plan.
Monday starts the clock on Tagovailoa trying to ensure he’s a top-five selection. While Joe Burrow is etched in stone with the Cincinnati Bengals at No. 1 overall, Tagovailoa remains viable as the second quarterback chosen, competing with Oregon’s Justin Herbert and Utah State’s Jordan Love for the honor.
If Tagovailoa proves he’s healthy, he has the inside track.
5. Vikings offseason will tell you their thoughts on Cousins
If the Minnesota Vikings don’t extend Kirk Cousins this offseason, it says plenty.
Minnesota is projected to have $1.3 million in cap space come free agency, the smallest figure in the league. Now, general manager Rick Spielman will surely release cornerback Xavier Rhodes to save another $8.1 million in the coming days, but the fact remains, the Vikings are short on cash.
The easiest way for Spielman to create spending money? Extend Cousins.
Cousins is entering the final season of his three-year, $84 million fully guaranteed deal. With a cap hit of $31 million, he’s more than double the next-highest number on the team. Signing Cousins to an extension would assuredly bring his number down in 2020, maybe by half or more.
It should also be noted that since the Redskins tagged Cousins twice in Washington, a third tag would cost more than $50 million. That’s never happening.
If Spielman doesn’t extend Cousins, there’s a good chance Minnesota can’t improve outside of its draft picks this offseason. It also means the only way he’s coming back is in a full-scale bidding war, one the Vikings might be hesitant to jump into.
History lesson
To survive during World War II, the Steelers twice merged with another franchise.
In 1943, Pittsburgh and the Philadelphia Eagles came together, becoming the Phil-Pitt Steagles. The following season, it was the Steelers and then-Chicago Cardinals turning into CARD-PITT for a season. The Steagles had success with a 5-4-1 record. CARD-PITT? 0-10, only scoring double-digits in three games.
Parting shot
The Carolina Panthers should embark on a full-scale rebuild this offseason.
After trading Trai Turner for Russell Okung, the Matt Rhule era saw its first important transaction. The next one should be a tag-and-trade of cornerback James Bradberry, followed by the organization making calls on Cam Newton’s market.
With Rhule in the beginning of a seven-year deal, the Panthers can take their time. They can develop properly without making win-now, pay-later decisions. They can build for when Drew Brees retires from the New Orleans Saints.
Come free agency, they should sign veterans on short-term deals. General manager Marty Hurney can then flip said players at the NFL trade deadline in October, gaining additional draft capital for 2021.
Finally, they should field calls on running back Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey, 23, is coming off an All-Pro season in which he amassed 1,387 rushing yards, 1,008 receiving yards and 19 total touchdowns. He likely will never enjoy a better season. If a team is willing to part with a first-round choice and then some, do it.
For the Panthers, they are playing the ultimate long game. Might as well start now.