Champions League: Atletico Madrid face a season-defining test at Anfield

Atletico Madrid head to Anfield on Wednesday to face Liverpool in the second leg of the Champions League Round of 16. A year removed from their collapse against Juventus, will Diego Simeone and Atletico be able to complete the massive upset this time around?

Atletico Madrid’s Champions League elimination at the hands of Juventus last season felt like the end of an era for the Rojiblancos. Even after a 2-0 first leg win against Juventus, Atleti once again collapsed under pressure in the return leg as they were sent home by a familiar foe: Cristiano Ronaldo. The Champions League tie was the last for the likes of Antoine Griezmann, Diego Godin, Juanfran, Filipe Luis and Lucas Hernandez in the famous red and white colors of Atleti.

Fast forward one year and Atletico Madrid are in the same position once again. They head into this week’s Champions League Round of 16 return leg up 1-0 on aggregate against the defending champions, Liverpool. Simeone’s side captured the upset first-leg advantage thanks to an early Saul goal and their compact 4-4-2 low block defensive structure which congested the space for Liverpool in their own final third.

But as was the case in the second leg against Juventus last season, Atleti are still not the favorites to progress to the quarterfinals despite the aggregate lead. This is a team that has not fared well in away contests, with a mere two wins in their last 12 away Champions League fixtures. And it goes without saying that the task for Atletico in dethroning the defending European champions is far from complete because their biggest away test awaits them: Anfield.

As the likes of Barcelona, Bayern Munich and countless Premier League teams would say, the atmosphere and intensity at Anfield is on a whole other level. Liverpool’s play at Anfield has exemplified just that this season, winning all 15 of their league home games in the current campaign. Even with Atletico Madrid’s slim one-goal lead at hand, it means very little considering Liverpool’s countless comebacks at home. No deficit is too large to overcome at Anfield – just ask Barcelona.

For Atletico, Wednesday’s second leg will define their campaign. Their season has been marred by disappointment after disappointment, including their trio of winless performances against Real Madrid and early elimination in the Copa Del Rey.

To make matters worse, pressure is mounting on Simeone due to what is now unraveling as a second straight underperforming season. A Champions League tie win against Liverpool can alleviate the pressure off of Simeone and instill some much-needed hope within the fanbase. But yet another European collapse will only add on to the doubt of whether he is the right man to lead Atletico into their new era.

So, just how can Simeone’s side take down Liverpool and end their hopes at a repeat Champions League title?

Success for Atletico on Wednesday will come down to two key components: how well Atletico Madrid can defend against aerial balls into the box and their overall approach when in possession.

First, Atleti know that they will be in for a bombardment of aerial balls into the box from Liverpool at Anfield. Although Liverpool failed to convert any of their aerial balls into high percentage goal-scoring chances in the first leg, this is a team that has thrived off of this tactic better than any other team in the Premier League. According to Understat, the Reds have scored a combined 11 goals off of corners and set pieces in league play.

In the open play, they are just as dangerous thanks to fullbacks Andrew Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold. They each are keen on finding open teammates in the box and delivering timely weighted passes or aerial balls their way. Whether it is on the flanks or further inside via the half-space, the two are among the best at detecting mismatches in the final third and acting on instinct to take advantage. It is why they have combined for 19 league assists this season.

For Simeone to prepare for such an audacious defensive test, he should not primarily scout Liverpool and study on just how they convert aerial balls into goals. Instead, he may very well look back at his own 3-0 loss to Juventus last season as a reference point. In the loss, Juventus recognized that Atleti were relying on their low block to see out the game. So, Miralem Pjanic and company decided to launch an array of aerial balls and crosses into the box rather than to progressively navigate their way to the final third. Their plan, somehow, worked to their favor as they scored two goals — both from Ronaldo — off of 36 attempted crosses.

In the fixture against Juventus, Simeone started Diego Godin and Jose Gimenez — both of whom had a difficulty clearing away every single aerial ball that came their way. This time around, he will likely have Felipe and Stefan Savic. In La Liga this season, Felipe and Savic have won 73 percent and 60 percent of aerial duels respectively. The two must be prepared to clear away a multitude of aerial balls coming in from outside the box. More importantly, they each need to be near flawless on their positioning and communication because all it takes is one minor blunder for Liverpool to pounce on for a goal.

As mentioned, Simeone’s plan for his side when on the ball will be extremely decisive. Will Atletico decide to concede possession and send 10 men back to their defensive third or will they be more assertive to claw their way for a crucial away goal?

In this tactical component, they can also learn from their collapse against Juventus on how not to approach a crucial away fixture. Simeone elected to simply shift to a deep defensive low block, which made it easier for Juve to play with a high line and push more players further up the pitch. Thus, Atletico had no attacking presence as they tallied up zero shots on target and a grand total of seven touches in the opponent’s box.

If Simeone decides to once again attempt to play out a deep defensive low block in the second leg against Liverpool, his side may very well be in for a long night.

Unlike Juventus, Liverpool are not a one-dimensional attacking unit. Jurgen Klopp can unleash his midfielders up high to occupy space just outside the box while Roberto Firmino can drag out defenders from their line with his swift movements into open pockets of space. While Atletico Madrid may attempt to focus on trapping any passing lanes from opening up, Liverpool’s tremendous positioning and movements while in possession can often beat that tactic.

At this point in the season, Atletico Madrid – sitting sixth in La Liga – have nothing to lose so why not be more aggressive when on the ball.

This could come in the form of pushing up fullbacks Renan Lodi and Sime Vrsaljko high up the pitch and provide each with more offensive responsibilities, such as overlapping runs from out wide. Also, Simeone could revert back to his diamond 4-4-2 formation and have either Joao Felix or Angel Correa take on a new role. Either of the two could occupy the space in behind midfielder Fabinho and counter overloads in the center. These two tactical approaches would surprise Liverpool as the Reds are surely expecting a conservative, passive Atleti when in possession.

Atletico Madrid surely face one of their most daunted tests in years against one of the best Premier League sides ever. With the right mentality and tactics in place, Simeone could produce yet another masterclass of a managerial performance and pull off the grand upset.