Will Tom Brady be an elite fantasy quarterback in Tampa Bay?

Tom Brady is headed to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but will the move push him back into the elite tier of fantasy quarterbacks?

It’s not yet official, but Tom Brady is leaving the New England Patriots to sign with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Beyond the real-life impact of the move, on and off the field, the next natural point of interest is the fantasy football impact of Brady landing in Tampa.

Despite what widely looked like a bad year with the Patriots last year, with the second-lowest touchdown pass total of his career over a full season as the starter (24), Brady topped 4,000 yards through the air (4,057) with just eight interceptions in 613 pass attempts. His five 300-yard games matches his total from 2018. In fantasy terms, Brady came in at QB12 in 2019.

Brady has not been a top-10 fantasy quarterback since 2017, and that’s the only season in the last four he’s finished in the top 10 at the position. But a decline in the quality of his weapons is partially to blame for that.

Bruce Arians’ “no risk it, no biscuit” offense does not favor Brady’s strength carving up defenses in the short and intermediate areas of the field. But Arians has also said “you can’t go broke putting more in the bank”, as a nod to any completion being a positive play. The difference between Jameis Winston’s 30 interceptions last year and Brady’s eight has the makings of extra opportunities to be had all-around.

Tampa Bay allowed 47 sacks last year, one shy of tying for the most allowed in the league. But Pro Football Focus’ grades say Brady will be upgrading, from their 10th-best offensive line in New England to the seventh-best in Tampa Bay. That high sack volume points toward the Buccaneers having a more pass-heavy offense and a middle of the pack sack rate last year (6.9 percent).

In Tampa Bay Brady will be throwing to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, who finished as WR5 and WR2 in standard scoring leagues last year. On a per-game basis, they were second and third among wide receivers. Breshad Perriman seems unlikely to be re-signed after a great finish last year, but the Buccaneers shouldn’t have much trouble finding a good No. 3 wide receiver.

In New England Brady of course had a top tight in Rob Gronkowski for many years, and Aaron Hernandez made it a formidable duo for a time. O.J. Howard had a down year for the Buccaneers last year, but he had 11 touchdowns in his first two NFL seasons and has plenty of upside. Cameron Brate is also capable second tight end.

Brady will be operating behind an offensive line that’s better than it looks, with two top 5-10 fantasy wide receivers, a promising young tight end and a young running back in Ronald Jones who topped 1,000 total yards last year. The addition of another running back who’s more of a pass catcher could be coming.

Brady will turn 43 in August, so the cliff could be coming. But there’s reason to buy into him as a top-10 fantasy signal caller for 2020, running Arians’ offense with a plethora of weapons around him. The possibility of hype-driven, inflated ADP come draft time is something to be keenly aware of though.