Where should fantasy expectations now be for Todd Gurley?

Todd Gurley is now an Atlanta Falcon, so what does that mean for his fantasy value in 2020?

Todd Gurley was cut by the Los Angeles Rams late Thursday afternoon, and Friday morning he reportedly agreed to terms on a one-year, $5 million deal with the Atlanta Falcons. He’ll be returning to where he made hay at the University of Georgia.

The Falcons were 30th in the league in rushing last season, and the release of Devonta Freeman left them with Brian Hill, Ito Smith and Quadree Allison on the depth chart at running back. So Gurley will step into a significant role.

Gurley was the top-scoring fantasy running back (standard scoring leagues) in both 2017 and 2018, and he was RB3 in full-point PPR in 2018 when he played 14 games. But a fade late in that 2018 campaign, spurred by a knee issue that may be arthritic, carried into 2019 as he posted the all-around  worst season of his career (857 rushing yards, 3.8 yards per carry, 31 receptions).

But after leading the league in rushing touchdowns in 2017 and 2018, Gurley had 12 scores on the ground (tied for fifth in the league) with two additional scores through the air.

The exact number varies depending on the source, but Gurley had either 51 (Pro Football Reference) or 56 red zone carries (RotoWire) and accounted for 63 percent of the Rams’ red zone carries last year regardless. Despite the reduced workload in 2019, his actual snap rate (71 percent) was not far below 2017 (76 percent) and 2018 (75 percent).

Gurley finished as RB11 in standard scoring leagues last year (RB14 in full-point PPR).

The Rams had an top-end run blocking line in 2017 and 2018, according to Pro Football Focus’ grades (fifth and first respectively), but they fell off dramatically last year. As a result, per RotoWire, Gurley had nearly two-thirds of his yards after contact in 2019.

It seems ridiculous at a glance, but Gurley is getting a significant offensive line upgrade in Atlanta.

Gurley’s days as a workhorse are clearly done, so the Falcons will surely mix in snaps and touches for Hill and Smith fairly liberally. That reeks of a dreaded backfield by committee, but there’s an easy philosophy for fantasy owners to deploy when facing these situations.

The math is easy. It take 60 yards to equal the value of one touchdown in fantasy. So when in doubt about a backfield rotation, always lean toward the guy who is going to get the majority of the red zone and goal line carries. If that guy for the Falcons in 2020 is not Gurley, practically exclusively, he is being grossly misused.

Gurley will never be an elite running back, in real or fantasy terms, again. But talk of his complete demise is overblown, and even mixing in a missed game or two there’s fantasy value to be mined here.

The downside risk is inherent and obvious, but Gurley is solidly in the high-end RB2 conversation right now. He can be downgraded a bit in PPR, to a mid-to low-end RB2, under an assumption his limited passing game usage from last year carries over to a new team. But if he gets back up to even the 40-45 catch range, which is possible as the best receiving back Atlanta will have unless they draft someone of that ilk, a push to a RB1 finish is possible.