The Step Back Composite NBA Draft Big Board: The best 30 draft prospects of the 2010s

No. 6 overall pick, Portland Trail Blazers, 2012

The original Ja Morant, Damian Lillard was about as good of a player at the small college level as you could ask for. He went sixth in the 2012 NBA Draft, but smart draft scouts had him higher; his three-level scoring, efficiency on volume from 3, and ability to get to the line consistently meant that he was tailor-made to be an NBA scoring guard, and he had great assist numbers that were somewhat flattened by his gigantic usage. Lillard becoming a primary initiator — and right away — was not much of a surprise.

The only reason he isn’t higher is because at 22 years old, there was a flattening of his development curve that could be expected, creating reasonable doubt about a cap on his ceiling. He ended up shooting straight past that cap to franchise-changer status, but that wasn’t a given at the time. He also certainly got penalized for putting up numbers at a small school, and even though his advanced numbers transcended the work of future comparative stat-stuffers like Chris Clemons, there was worry about whether he would translate. A 20-year-old Lillard who played at say, Stanford, probably ends up ranked much higher.