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The Step Back Composite NBA Draft Big Board: The best 30 draft prospects of the 2010s

By Trevor Magnotti

WASHINGTON, DC - DECEMBER 19: Anthony Davis #23 of the New Orleans Pelicans and John Wall #2 of the Washington Wizards talk following the Wizards 116-106 win at Capital One Arena on December 19, 2017 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - DECEMBER 19: Anthony Davis #23 of the New Orleans Pelicans and John Wall #2 of the Washington Wizards talk following the Wizards 116-106 win at Capital One Arena on December 19, 2017 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /
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Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images
Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images /

Tier 5 — Very, very good role players

No. 2 overall pick, Minnesota Timberwolves, 2011

With apologies to RJ Barrett, Dennis Smith Jr. and Harrison Barnes, among others, Derrick Williams makes the cut as a demonstration of what this project is about.

Williams is a great example of a pair of things this post will look to illuminate. The first is to remember that Williams was not an obvious bust at the time. A 6-foot-9 power forward with great length who was an elite college finisher, showed outside shooting potential and offered defensive upside as a rebounder and athlete, Williams created a real debate about whether the Cleveland Cavaliers should take him over Kyrie Irving in the 2011 NBA Draft. The way his career unfolded was obviously disappointing, but in the spring of 2011, Williams looked like a nearly sure bet to be at least a valuable supporting cast member, thanks to his athletic gifts and the potential versatility he had between the 3 and the 4. Put him in an ecosystem that isn’t a David Kahn-led team that already had Kevin Love commanding minutes at the 4 (Like, say, Utah at No. 3), and maybe he turns out much more positively.

But part of the reason Williams ultimately bombed out of the league was that he is a good representative of how much the league has changed, both in play style and draft scouting. In 2011, the league had noticed that shooting was becoming paramount, but teams hadn’t seemed to figure out exactly how to scout it. Many fell in love with Williams’s 2010-11 shooting performance (56.8 percent from 3) but ignored that it came on just 74 attempts, mostly wide-open catch-and-shoots. Compare that to Jaren Jackson Jr., a similar prospect in size and projected role seven years later, who took 96, many of them off the dribble or under fire from opposing defenses. The realization that more complex shots and a higher volume both indicated a better chance of success started with learning from Williams’ failure.

Derrick Williams was certainly a good prospect. He’d almost certainly go No. 1 in the 2020 NBA Draft, and while he had holes in his game and ended up failing, as a prospect he had very good odds of succeeding. Just because he didn’t end up doing so doesn’t necessarily make the prospect evaluation wrong.

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