No. 5 overall pick, Dallas Mavericks, 2018
The case for Trae Young over Ayton is pretty simple: Lead guards are more valuable than big men in the modern NBA, even if the big man is an elite offensive weapon. And no one breaks the game open more for their teammates than an elite shooter that can pass at a high level, which is what Trae Young projected to do. Even if you take the defensive issues and the potential finishing problems as serious, Young had a better shot of becoming a team’s most valuable player, which he clearly has been through two years in Atlanta.
While other point guards were probably surer bets to translate to winning play than Young coming out of college, no one of the last decade was a better off-the-dribble shooter, and his ability to expand the court with his shooting opened up lanes for his criminally underrated passing package. Even with the shooting drop-off in the second half of his lone college season, his passing was good enough to take him in the top 10, and Young was certainly the easiest player we’ve discussed so far to build an offense around. Even if there’s a cap on his ability to be a No. 1 guy, he certainly projected to clear that bar.