Justin Herbert is going to be a coach killer in the NFL

There’s no denying Justin Herbert’s potential, but the former Oregon Ducks quarterback fits the profile of a coach killer ahead of the 2020 NFL Draft.

Coming off a good junior season at Oregon in 2018, Justin Herbert could have gone pro and been drafted very early in the 2019 NFL Draft. But he stayed for his junior season, effectively bet on himself and put up even better numbers last year.

Herbert looks like what has been the prototype for an NFL quarterback, standing 6-foot-6 and weighing 236 pounds. He is also very mobile, with production as a runner to back it up, with arm strength that’s easily deemed the best among the quarterbacks in this year’s class.

The NFL comps for Herbert are wide-ranging, from Carson Wentz to Blaine Gabbert and in between (Ryan Tannehill). He has excelled during the truncated pre-draft process, with strong showings at the Senior Bowl and NFL Combine. That latter good showing in Indianapolis, which allows physical tools to shine, was not at all surprising.

There is some buzz, however believable and rooted in the stark difference in durability concerns, suggesting Herbert will be drafted before Tua Tagovailoa. That will be a franchise-altering decision if a team makes it, for better or worse.

Herbert finished fourth in the Pac-12 in completion percentage last year (66.8 percent), behind fellow 2020 draft-eligible prospects Tyler Huntley (73.1 percent; first) and Anthony Gordon (71.6 percent; third). Huntley and Gordon are likely to be taken on Day 3 of the draft, possibly 100-some picks after Herbert.

Pro Football Focus leads the line of Herbert’s harshest critics, and this stat is among the most telling.

Even with the door open to subjective thresholds for what defines a “uncatchable off-target” throw and/or an open receiver, Herbert’s scattershot accuracy on intermediate throws last season is undeniable and a huge concern. The best quarterbacks in the NFL rule that area of the field, with a combination of decisiveness and accuracy/ball placement.

In his scouting report, Lance Zierlein of NFL.com describes Herbert’s play as “more mechanical than maestro” as he “toggles between caution and worry attacking the first two levels.” Zierlein also lists ball placement, touch and throwing the ball in rhythm among Herbert’s weaknesses. While mobility and athleticism are strong suits for Herbert, he sometimes struggles to escape quick pressure.

All of the above sounds very similar to a big, strong-armed quarterback from the 2018 draft class: Josh Allen.

Herbert has a ton of upside, and he’ll definitely benefit from NFL coaching to polish the rough edges of his game. Having pro-level talent around him will also be helpful if he is to reach his potential.

If Herbert falls out of the top-five or even the top-10, the risk attached to him will get lower as the idea he’ll have to start immediately fades and the salary commitment is lessened. So a team that drafts him somewhere in the back half of the first round would not necessarily be putting jobs on the line.

But it seems more likely the Miami Dolphins (No. 5 overall), the Los Angeles Chargers (No. 6 overall) or even the Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 9 overall) will take the plunge with Herbert. It’s also possible someone is intrigued enough to trade up to get him, further raising the stakes for said team.

Herbert looks destined to be a coach killer in NFL and he’d take the general manager that drafts him down with him too.