Justin Herbert and the 5 most overrated players in the 2020 NFL Draft

1. Justin Herbert, Quarterback, Oregon

It is always a quarterback. There is always (at least) one quarterback in every draft gets way over-drafted because of the immense value of the quarterback position. This year, that is Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert.

The former Duck was an effective, long-term starter at Oregon who showed talent and ability in the passing game. He also tested well and interviewed well at the NFL combine. He also has great size (6-foot-6, 236 pounds) that has quarterback coaches glowing about his potential.

But the reality is Herbert is the fifth-best quarterback in this class who is being pushed up draft boards due to various degrees of wishful thinking and ignorance.

Herbert is inconsistent and has failed to make adequate growth as a signal-caller in his time with Oregon. While it is admirable he has the patience and maturity to go through all of his reads, he is not very fast about it sometimes and has benefited from playing against relatively mediocre defenses in the Pac-12. He is not fast enough (4.68, 40-yard dash) to run away from edge rushers at the NFL level when the pocket collapses due to his delay in releasing the ball.

All of this is compounded by a high draft position. If Herbert goes to a team like Miami, Los Angeles (Chargers) or Jacksonville, places where he is likely to be asked to start sooner rather than later, he is going to be playing for a team with an inferior offensive line and in the case of Miami and Jacksonville, inferior skill position players. These put him in a terrible position and one in which he is unlikely to be very successful.

There are first round destinations for Herbert where he could become a great NFL quarterback: Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Green Bay all come to mind. But, he’s almost certainly going to get drafted by a top-10 team, and that spells trouble for the young quarterback and the team that drafts him.