Let’s talk about Henry Ruggs and his fantasy value in 2020

Some say the Las Vegas Raiders overdrafted Henry Ruggs, but where should you draft him in your fantasy league?

Henry Ruggs was the first wide receiver off the board on day one of the 2020 NFL Draft. The receiver with the best 40 time being potentially overdrafted by the Las Vegas Raiders would make the late great Al Davis proud, but with Mike Mayock at the helm you can bet that this decision was made off more than just Ruggs’ otherworldly speed.

One of the most divisive prospects in this draft class due to his muted production at Alabama, Henry Ruggs was never even a top two receiver on his college team. With that being said, this was largely due to playing at recruiting powerhouse Alabama. He played with what looks to be four other first round picks in Jerry Jeudy (2020), Jaylen Waddle (2021), Devonta Smith (2021), and Calvin Ridley (2018).

Ruggs should immediately take over as the Las Vegas Raiders number one receiver. He is a homerun threat that makes Tyrell Williams (who asked for a trade this offseason) expendable. The Raiders are likely not done adding to their receiver room, but get an uber athletic alpha male to lead the receiving corps. While Ruggs put up just 746 receiving yards as a junior, he did so at 18.65 yards per reception. He caught seven touchdown passes off just 40 receptions, which equates to a touchdown on 17.5 percent of his receptions. Drilling down further, Ruggs had 14 of his receptions go for 20 or more yards. His 35 percent big play percentage (receptions of 20 or more yards) ranks as third in the class.

Henry Ruggs is much more than just a clear out, go route receiver. He can operate on all four levels (including at or behind the line of scrimmage), and can work the middle of the field on stretches, outs, ins, slants, and crosses. Ruggs always had the potential to be a special player in the NFL, as if he played for any other team he would likely be in the consensus debate to be the first receiver off the board. I am not sure anyone believed he would be going to a team that would be looking to use him as an immediate number one receiver, but here we are.

Henry Ruggs Fantasy Impact

As alluded to above, Henry Ruggs is expected to immediately slide in as the Las Vegas Raiders number one receiver. There is simply no one on the team close to his talent level, or who can threaten defenses like he can. The Raiders would be wise to bring in a veteran for opposing defenses to key in on, but it will only be a matter of time before they start treating the Alabama product as the top receiving threat. Ruggs projects as WR3 in his rookie season, but has the upside to threaten WR1 numbers on a weekly basis. He may be more boom or bust than most would like, but that worked out just fine for players like DeSean Jackson, Mike Wallace, and T.Y. Hilton. Consider Ruggs an upside WR2 in dynasty leagues.

Derek Carr (and possibly Marcus Mariota) gets a slight upgrade with the addition of Ruggs. Outside of the bye weeks, they are still options strictly in superflex leagues, but this raises the weekly floor of whoever is under center for the Raiders.

Tyrell Williams moves down to WR5 territory. He should have some good games if he sticks with the Raiders, but predicting where and when they will be will likely prove to be more trouble than it is worth. He is someone to fade in redraft leagues barring a trade.

Josh Jacobs is a major beneficiary here as Henry Ruggs is going to command extra defensive attention, which should prevent teams from even thinking about stacking the box. He remains a RB1 option in both redraft and dynasty, and is expected to be more involved in the passing game in a much improved offense.

Darren Waller takes the first hit to his fantasy value. Waller was never expected to maintain his absurd target share in 2020, and adding Ruggs was the first step to Waller becoming a 15 to 18 percent target share player as opposed to the 23.8 percent he saw in 2019. The addition of Bryan Edwards in the third round, all but sealed Waller’s fate as a major regression candidate in the targets department. He is still a TE1 option in PPR leagues, but will need to find the end zone more consistently to stave off a relatively disappointing season.