The Whiteboard: Power-ranking Giannis Antetokounmpo trade packages

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Before the NBA season was suspended, Giannis Antetokounmpo was on track to finish as the best player on the league’s best team for the second consecutive season, with back-to-back MVP Awards an apparent formality. He is listed at 6-foot-11 but mobile and skilled enough to function at all five positions at either end of the floor. He is a unique talent and a historically productive star. And until he signs the max extension the Bucks will undoubtedly offer him whenever the 2020 offseason occurs, he’s also a hypothetical trade target.

If he declined to sign that extension it would be a message to the Bucks that his long-term commitment to the organization was something less than 100 percent and the team would have to explore trading him or risk losing him for nothing down the road. There’s no real reason to be discussing this right now, other than a trade hypothetical from Bleacher-Report that was widely aggregated at the end of last week.

Still, it’s going to keep coming up so let’s get all the cards on the table and grade out all the possibilities. Who can offer the Bucks the best trade package for Giannis?

Knicks: Julius Randle, Kevin Knox and filler

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

Mavericks: Kristaps Porzingis and filler

A few years ago, this might have been compelling as a somewhat even swap (with filler around Porzingis for contract-matching). But Porzingis doesn’t look nearly as compelling as a primary piece right now. He’s become one-dimensional on offense — almost half his shots were 3-pointers this season and he was in the 20th and fourth percentiles as a post-up and isolation scorer, respectively. He’s still tall and still blocks shots but he’s really just a spot-up threat on offense which means the Bucks would be trading Giannis for a slightly souped-up Brook Lopez. Ugh.

Warriors: Andrew Wiggins and a bunch of first-round picks

This is the hypothetical Bleacher-Report offered up — Wiggins, the Warriors’ 2020 first-round pick, the Timberwolves’ 2021 first-round pick (top-three-protected) and the Warriors’ 2022 first-round pick. If you wanted to get crazy, you could swap in Draymond Green for one of the picks but it’s all academic because this is still pennies on the dollar.

Wiggins is needed for contract-matching purposes but any implication that he’s a useful player for an aspiring contender should be wiped away by the entirety of his time with the Timberwolves. He’s a high-volume scorer who offers middling efficiency and nothing else on offense, and he certainly doesn’t compensate for those shortcomings at the other end. Maybe he could be redeemed next to Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson but he’s not putting the Bucks on a positive trajectory as an offensive focal point. In terms of the picks, this draft class has no clear stars and the Warriors 2022 pick is almost certainly not coming in the lottery. Even the Timberwolves could be much improved next season. Three first-round picks sound like a lot but given the scenario here, there’s just not much capital being offered.

Celtics: Some combination of Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward and/or Marcus Smart

There are no picks here and the only real developmental upside is Jaylen Brown, who probably tops out near the level he’s at now — a fringe All-Star level wing. Milwaukee would have to play small a lot, kind of mimicking how the Celtics play now but with Khris Middleton standing in for Jayson Tatum. It’s, honestly, probably as fun a scenario as there is out there but it keeps Giannis in the East and turns the Celtics into an absolute juggernaut with Giannis, Tatum and Kemba Walker chasing a title. If the Bucks could coax Boston into putting Tatum in this deal we might be getting closer to equal value but it’s hard to imagine the Celtics really entertaining that.

Heat: Some combination of Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Kendrick Nunn and/or Tyler Herro

For me, the catch here would be the likelihood of having to take Butler back for salary-matching — he’s the least appealing given his age. The Heat probably would want to hold onto at least one of the Adebayo-Nunn-Herro trio but the value for the Bucks would really be adding that broad base of complementary young talent. Adebayo is not on Giannis’ level but he’s a versatile All-Star big who should keep getting better. He and Nunn looked great working in the pick-and-roll and Herro was as good as advertised as a shooter, with some potential creation upside as well. You could see a scenario where some version of this deal keeps the Bucks in the top half of the Eastern Conference but they’d still be looking for the foundational star to make them a real contender.

76ers: Ben Simmons, Josh Richardson and Matisse Thybulle

In terms of holding the Bucks’ position in the Eastern Conference, this is probably the best-case scenario. Giannis stays in the East but Milwaukee would also be leveraging the 76ers desperation to solve the Simmons-Embiid fracture, and a Giannis-Embiid pairing presents most of the same structural problems for the 76ers. Milwaukee gets Simmons, an elite defender who can play a similar role (albeit less effectively) than Giannis, maintaining the basic integrity of Mike Budenholzer’s system at both ends. In addition, the Bucks get to sap some of Philadelphia’s depth and upgrade their own wing options with Richardson and Thybulle taking minutes from Wes Matthews and Pat Connaughton.

The takeaways from this whole exercise should be two-fold. The first is that while the Warriors’ package of Wiggins and picks feels plausible because it’s more transparently available, it is far from the best or most interesting offer the Bucks are likely to see if Giannis forced their hand.

The second is that there aren’t any scenarios that return equal value to the Bucks. Giannis is one of the two or three best players in the entire league and anyone you’d argue is above him, or even that close to him, isn’t going to be traded for him. In addition, the Bucks have spent years building this roster around him and his talents and merging timelines to open their championship window now. If they trade him it means changing plans and changing timelines — they can’t do it without taking a step back. Which is why it’s only going to happen if Giannis basically tells them they have to.

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