Best bet to finish 2nd to Clemson in ACC Atlantic: Florida State or Louisville?

The Clemson Tigers have the best ACC odds to win the Atlantic. But who has the best chance of coming in second place: Florida State or Louisville?

The Clemson Tigers own the ACC. Every other team in the conference is paying them rent.

No team has dominated a conference during the College Football Playoff era quite like Clemson has the ACC. For the last five seasons, the Tigers have won this Power 5 conference and reached the playoff. Clemson has appeared in four of the last five title bouts, winning two of them over the SEC’s Alabama Crimson Tide.

As long as Dabo Swinney keeps his coaching staff and recruits like he does, Clemson will stay a powerhouse in the Southeastern footprint. Eventually, the Tigers will get a formidable challenger in-conference. It may very well come from the ACC Coastal, as programs like the Miami Hurricanes and the North Carolina Tar Heels look to be on the rise. But what about the ACC Atlantic?

While the last few years have been challenging, we should expect the Florida State Seminoles and the Louisville Cardinals to return to national prominence at some point. Florida State is a college football blue-blood and Louisville has one of the best athletic programs in the country.

Though it is Clemson’s division and conference for the foreseeable future, which team will finish second in the ACC Atlantic this year: Florida State or Louisville?

Here are the latest ACC title odds, via LVSuperBook.

Updated 2020 ACC title odds

With Clemson having unbelievable odds to win the ACC again at 1/6, you can see Florida State and Louisville a good way down at 25/1. They are tied with the Coastal’s Virginia Tech Hokies for the fourth-best odds in the ACC, while simultaneously looking up at Miami and North Carolina, both at 12/1 odds. Let’s take a look at the schedules and see who will be better between FSU and U of L.

The Seminoles have an unforgiving non-conference slate. They are to play another rebuilding former football power in the West Virginia Mountaineers on a neutral site in Atlanta. Florida State has a September road date at Boise State, which could be challenging. The Seminoles also host in-state rival Florida, but that doesn’t really matter because the Gators are a superior team now.

Depending on how the WVU game goes at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Florida State could go 1-3 in the non-conference in head coach Mike Norvell’s first year in Tallahassee. As for the eight-game ACC schedule, how many wins are there to be had really?

Florida State has road games at North Carolina State, at Louisville and at Miami. The Seminoles must defeat the Wolfpack in Raleigh if they want any hope of a second-place finish in the ACC Atlantic. Clemson at home is a certain loss. The only conference games we’re sure Florida State will win are home vs. Boston College and on the road at Syracuse in the Carrier Dome.

In an absolute best-case scenario, Florida State maybe goes 9-3 (7-1) with its only conference loss at home to Clemson. Realistically, this is a 7-5 (5-3) team, give or take a game. Norvell will get this thing turned around in Tallahassee, but these things take time. Florida State will need some scheduling breaks along the way they certainly aren’t getting this year.

As for Louisville, the Cardinals may very well go 2-2 in non-conference play. While the Cardinals should have no issues beating Western Kentucky or Murray State, ending the year at Notre Dame and hosting in-state rival Kentucky could be losses. Even if we give the Cards the slight edge at home vs. Kentucky, we can’t expect U of L to beat Notre Dame in South Bend just yet.

Now for ACC play. Opening with North Carolina State at home and then a road date at Clemson back-to-back isn’t ideal, but Louisville should be able to hold serve and defeat the Wolfpack at home. Scott Satterfield has his program trending in the right direction in his second year with Louisville. It took a lot for him to leave his alma mater, but he’s already gone 8-5 in year one.

If Louisville splits with the Virginia schools, maybe Louisville goes 6-2 in ACC play. Even if the Cardinals drop their final two regular-season games at Notre Dame and home vs. Kentucky, a 6-2 conference mark should net them a second-place finish in the ACC Atlantic. Having the home date vs. Florida State is the most important game of the eight outside of Clemson.

Though we should expect the Seminoles to be better under Norvell in year one, Louisville is infinitely more likely to go 9-3 this fall under Satterfield in his second year leading the program. Louisville’s toughest conference road game is at Clemson, which was going to be a loss anyway. If at Virginia is your second-toughest conference road game, you have a favorable schedule.

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