Oddsmakers expect Wisconsin to beat Minnesota … here’s why they’re wrong

The Wisconsin Badgers are favored to win the Big Ten West in 2020. What about the Minnesota Golden Gophers? Here’s why the oddsmakers are wrong about this.

Will 2020 be the year the Big Ten West finally sends a team to the College Football Playoff?

Since realignment, this Power 5 division has never defeated the Big Ten East in Indianapolis. Only the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Michigan State Spartans have ever represented the Big Ten in the playoff. While Ohio State remains a juggernaut in the East, we need to pay close attention to what’s going on in the West between the Minnesota Golden Gophers and the Wisconsin Badgers.

For the last half decade or so, the Badgers have been the best team in the Big Ten West. While they have routinely played in New Year’s Six bowls, they have never been able to beat whoever comes out of the East in early December. So maybe it’s Minnesota’s time to shine? They made things really interesting last year. What do the oddsmakers think about all this?

Here are the latest Big Ten title odds, via LVSuperBook.

Updated 2020 Big Ten title odds

Ohio State has the best odds of winning the Big Ten at 2/5. Tied for second are Wisconsin and the Penn State Nittany Lions at 7/1. In a tie for fourth place are Minnesota and the Michigan Wolverines at 16/1. Though the oddsmakers believe the Badgers are twice as likely to win the Big Ten West than the Golden Gophers, here is why they might be wrong with that logic.

Looking at their season schedules, Minnesota’s is slightly easier than what the Badgers are up against this fall. Though the Golden Gophers have to play at Camp Randall this year, this rivalry game comes at the end of a brutal three-game stretch for the Badgers. With dates at Michigan, Notre Dame at Lambeau and then hosting Minnesota, Wisconsin won’t go 3-0 in that stretch.

The chances of Wisconsin overlooking Minnesota are great because of the more traditional powers ahead of them on the schedule. The Badgers go on their bye after the Minnesota game before entering into a softer part of the schedule. Nebraska at home and Iowa at Kinnick to end the season can be challenging, but not as much as the three-game gauntlet previously mentioned.

Minnesota is fortunate to get Iowa at home in early September. Though the Golden Gophers get Michigan the week after the Wisconsin game, at least this one is at home. Do we really trust the Wolverines to beat a ranked team on the road with any consistency? After that, Minnesota’s hardest game the rest of the way is probably the regular-season finale at Nebraska in Lincoln.

Admittedly, these are two evenly matched teams between Wisconsin and Minnesota. Expect them to be fixtures in the top 25 throughout the season. One will go 10-2, maybe 11-1, while the other will only be a game or so off pace at 9-3. Wisconsin might be the better team, but that mid-season trio of games could end up being the Badgers’ downfall. Minnesota could capitalize.

Wisconsin will be the best team Minnesota plays this regular season, while the Badgers also have a neutral-site affair with Notre Dame to look forward to. Playing three top-15 teams in a row is not what you want to see on a playoff-contending team’s schedule like Wisconsin. Minnesota closed the gap between No. 1 and No. 2 in the Big Ten West last year. This season, they can take it.

For more NCAA football news, analysis, opinion and unique coverage by FanSided, including Heisman Trophy and College Football Playoff rankings, be sure to bookmark these pages.