Don’t sleep on Herm Edwards leading Arizona State to Pac-12 title

Though the latest odds show the Arizona State Sun Devils as a middle-of-the-pack team, don’t sleep on Herm Edwards leading them to a Pac-12 championship.

The Pac-12 has been lacking in the College Football Playoff era.

Since major college football took on this new postseason formate, only two West Coast teams have punched a ticket into the playoff: The 2014 Oregon Ducks and the 2016 Washington Huskies. While other Pac-12 teams have been close, we’re still going on four years since the conference got a bid to the tournament. What are they going to do now?

Last year’s conference champion Oregon is the heavy favorite to win the Pac-12 again. Even if star quarterback Justin Herbert now plays for the NFL’s Los Angeles Chargers, oddsmakers really like the job head coach Mario Cristobal is doing up in Eugene. He’s recruiting at a level on Nick Saban disciples like himself can ever truly replicate. But what about a team who beat them last year?

Yes, we’re talking about Herm Edwards‘ Arizona State Sun Devils. Though the last two years in Tempe have had their ups and downs, there’s reason to believe 2020 will be the year the Sun Devils finally put it all together. How good can they be and where do they stack up with the rest of the Pac-12?

Here are the latest Pac-12 title odds, via LVSuperBook.

Updated 2020 Pac-12 title odds

Oregon has the best odds to win the Pac-12 at 6/5. The USC Trojans have the second-best odds at 11/4 as the favorite team in the Pac-12 South. Division rival Utah paces USC at 6/1. Washington comes in at 10/1. Arizona is tied for the fifth-best odds with Stanford at 20/1. Cal and UCLA had respectable odds at 25/1 and 30/1, respectively. What are the oddsmakers getting wrong?

Oregon should be the favorite to win the Pac-12 North, though the Ducks could theoretically be pushed by Washington, Cal or Stanford. Washington is perceived as the likeliest challenge in the North for Oregon, though Cal has a navigable pathway towards second place in the division. As for the Pac-12 South, oddsmakers think it’ll come down to USC or Utah. Is that so?

USC might be a tad overrated, as that usually tends to be the case since Pete Carroll left the Trojans for the Seattle Seahawks. Their non-conference is brutal with a neutral-site affair vs. Alabama and a home date vs. traditional rival Notre Dame. As for Pac-12 play, there are very few easy games on the Trojans’ schedule.

In divisional play, the only two home games USC has are vs. Arizona State and Colorado. The Trojans should beat the Buffaloes but may be in for a doozy vs. the Sun Devils. Though they can win the road date at Arizona, going into UCLA could be hard and playing Utah in Salt Lake will be even more daunting. If USC goes 4-1 vs. the Pac-12 South this year, that would be wonderful.

What really hurts them is who they draw in the Pac-12 North. They get the four toughest teams. They have to play at Stanford, home vs. Cal, at Oregon and host Washington. USC is not winning in Autzen. Going 3-1 vs. this cluster would be an ideal situation. So even if USC drops both non-conference games to Alabama and Notre Dame, they can go 7-2 and win the Pac-12 South.

As for Utah, the Utes’ non-conference slate should be a breeze with no Power 5s on it. Road dates at Cal and Arizona State will be tough while playing UCLA in the Rose Bowl could be tricky. What helps the Utes’ navigability is they don’t play Oregon or Stanford out of the Pac-12 North. Their toughest North game is home vs. Washington, a game they should win.

While going 7-2 in Pac-12 play would be a pipe dream for USC, it’s more of a reality for Utah. Even if they drop road games at Cal and at Arizona State, as long as they hold serve and beat USC and Washington at home, Utah is in great shape to win the division. So while we have a strong feeling about what USC and Utah are up against, what if this is the year Arizona State plays spoiler?

As with Utah, Arizona State doesn’t play a Power 5 team in the non-conference. So their schedule is already infinitely easier than what USC is up against. In the Pac-12 South, there is a pathway for the Sun Devils to go 4-1, maybe even 5-0 if they beat USC in Los Angeles. Of course, they’d have to beat Utah at home, but that’s totally within the realm of possibility.

As for their four games vs. the Pac-12 North, the Sun Devils luck out in that they don’t have to face Washington or Stanford. Outside of the road date at Oregon, Arizona State should beat Oregon State at home, Cal at home and Washington State in Pullman to go 3-1 vs. the Pac-12 North. Outside of the Oregon road game, all of the Sun Devils’ games are winnable this year.

So what gives Edwards’ team the advantage is an easy non-conference schedule that won’t undermine them and potentially carry over to conference losses as it can with USC. The Sun Devils also get Utah at home, which puts a ton of pressure on the Utes to beat the Trojans in Salt Lake.

Even if Arizona State loses to Oregon in Eugene, they beat them last year and could beat the in the conference championship. Utah lost a lot of talent to the NFL, while this is a make-or-break year for Clay Helton at USC. With Arizona, Colorado and UCLA in the midst of rebuilding processes, Arizona State faces next to no pressure in the Pac-12 South. They could be as good as 11-1 (8-1) this fall.

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