Lane Kiffin vs. Mike Leach: Will Ole Miss or Mississippi State have more wins in 2020?

Lane Kiffin and Mike Leach will make the heated Egg Bowl rivalry so much more intense. But will it be Ole Miss or Mississippi State that has more wins in 2020?

The 2019 college football season ended in remarkable fashion for Mississippi State and Ole Miss. Coming into the game, both Matt Luke and Joe Moorhead were facing pressure from their respective fan bases.

A wild ending to the game including a “dog pee” celebration and a missed extra point attempt ended up handing MSU its second consecutive Egg Bowl win and gave MSU a shot to go play in the Music City Bowl.

Luke was let go after the game, and ultimately Moorhead was fired as well, even though Moorhead’s team won the rather ridiculous rivalry game.

Now State and Ole Miss have new head coaches, Mike Leach and Lane Kiffin respectively, and there’s plenty to discuss when it comes to who will be more successful in their first season. The two hires caught everyone’s attention and the two teams appear capable of improving under new leadership.

So, assuming college football is even played in 2020, which of these coaches will end up with more wins?

Kiffin inherits a roster that’s a decent fit for his offense

While Mike Leach will face a hurdle in completely retooling Mississippi State’s offense, Lane Kiffin has a roster that should be able to run his offense (at least somewhat effectively and efficiently) right from the start.

The Rebels ran the ball surprisingly well in 2019, and more than half of their offensive production was generated by their rushing attack. They averaged 251.3 rushing yards and 2.4 running touchdowns per game.

While FAU was predominantly a passing team in 2019 in a season that the Owls won 11 games, Kiffin’s FAU team in 2017 (another season when the Owls won 11 games) relied heavily on running the ball. In 2017, FAU averaged 285.1 rushing yards and 3.7 running touchdowns per game.

That season, FAU quarterback Jason Driskel was involved in the running game, though not to the extent that Ole Miss’ John Rhys Plumlee was in 2019. In 2017, Driskel ran for 427 yards and 8 touchdowns. In 2019, Plumlee ran for 1,023 and 12 scores.

Plumlee and Kiffin might turn out to be a pretty fun pairing to watch.

Leach is the more proven coach and has quarterback K.J. Costello

While Lane Kiffin has certainly come a long way since being left at the airport as the head coach of the USC Trojans, it’s easy to see Leach is the more proven coach between these two. His head coaching career spans 18 seasons, 10 at Texas Tech and eight at Washington State.

And he’s been pretty successful in those 18 seasons.

https://twitter.com/HailStateFB/status/1260718936737435648?s=20

Although it takes Leach a couple of seasons to get his team built in the mold that he wants it in, once it’s there, it’s a force to be reckoned with. After winning seven games in each of his first two seasons at Texas Tech, the Red Raiders averaged 8.75 wins under Leach’s leadership in Lubbock.

Similarly, it took Leach a few seasons to get going at Washington State, but the Cougars quickly became a problem in the Pac-12. Wazzu averaged four wins a year in Leach’s first three seasons, and then went on to average 8.6 wins a year for the rest of Leach’s tenure in Pullman.

He’s a proven winner.

Mike Leach has shown that he can turn programs around. And though it has previously taken Leach a few years to do that at his other head coaching stops, landing K.J. Costello might accelerate the process for Mississippi State.

Costello comes to Starkville as a transfer, having thrown for 6,151 yards and 49 touchdowns in his career. The last time Leach landed a transfer quarterback who helped improve his team came when Washington State picked up Gardner Minshew. While Costello is not Minshew, he is actually more proven at this point in his career than Minshew was before he played for Leach.

If Costello can improve his play similar to how Minshew stepped up under Leach’s tutelage, the Bulldogs might see quite a few passing touchdowns this season.

The Egg Bowl may determine who has the most wins

So, who wins more next season?

Given that both teams are at a talent disparity disadvantage relative to the rest of the SEC West (not counting Arkansas, who is an even bigger mess than these two teams), there’s a real chance that the Egg Bowl will determine this.

If everything goes as planned, here’s what Ole Miss’ schedule looks like this season:

• Sept. 5 vs. Baylor (in Houston, TX.)
• Sept. 12 vs. Southeast Missouri
• Sept. 19 vs. Auburn
• Sept. 26 at LSU
• Oct. 3 vs. Alabama
• Oct. 10 at Vanderbilt
• Oct. 17 vs. Florida
• Oct. 24 vs. UConn
• Nov. 7 at Texas A&M
• Nov. 14 at Arkansas
• Nov. 21 vs. Georgia Southern
• Nov. 26 vs. Mississippi State

There’s a very real chance that Ole Miss enters into November with a 3-5 record. Back-to-back road games against Texas A&M and Arkansas might be an issue for the Rebels, and that Nov. 21 game against Georgia Southern just five days before the Egg Bowl sets up to be a possible trap for Ole Miss. It seems likely that Kiffin’s team ends up anywhere from 4-8 to 6-6.

Now, let’s look at State’s schedule:

• Sept. 5 vs. New Mexico
• Sept. 12 at North Carolina State
• Sept. 19 vs. Arkansas
• Sept. 26 vs. Tulane
• Oct. 3 vs. Texas A&M
• Oct. 17 at Alabama
• Oct. 24 at LSU
• Oct. 31 vs. Auburn
• Nov. 7 vs. Mizzou
• Nov. 14 at Kentucky
• Nov. 21 vs. Alabama A&M
• Nov. 26 at Ole Miss

It seems likely that Mississippi State hits a hot start, begins the season at 3-1, and then runs into a buzz-saw of a stretch of schedule in October. That bye week between Texas A&M and a road trip to Alabama will help, but State has to follow that trip to Tuscaloosa up with a trip to Baton Rouge and then returns home to face Auburn. MSU probably steals one from Mizzou or Kentucky and enters the Egg Bowl with a 5-6 record.

If I had to put money on it, I’d give a slight edge to Kiffin’s team.

I think Mississippi State will face a steep learning curve as it adjusts to the Air Raid system that Mike Leach is looking to install. While I believe Costello will prove to be a prolific passer and could even get some Heisman buzz if State does better than I currently expect it to, it seems more likely to me right now that MSU ends up at 5-7 and Ole Miss finishes at 6-6.

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