All aboard the Calvin Ridley hype train in fantasy

Who doesn’t love Calvin Ridley in fantasy this season? As the season nears, expect to hear an unreal amount of hype for the Falcons #2 receiver.

There aren’t many consensus “breakout” picks in fantasy, as usually there are reasons to dislike players who aren’t being drafted in the first round. Calvin Ridley is different. If you look at the numbers, you just can’t not expect him to have a good season.

If you’re confused about why people are hyping him up, or have doubts about him before your draft, refer back to this article, because I’m going to explain why you should draft Calvin Ridley this year.

Vacated Targets in the Falcons Passing Attack

Matt Ryan provides the Falcons receivers a level of security not many other teams have. He has thrown for over 600 pass attempts the past two seasons and has missed just 3 games in his 12-year career. The Falcons defense looks to be similar to last year, meaning more shootouts and an inability to rely on the run game. This makes Ryan a near-lock for over 600 pass attempts again this year.

This massive volume has to go somewhere, and the Falcons lost target hog Austin Hooper to free agency and traded Mohamed Sanu to the Patriots mid-season last year. After Sanu was traded, Calvin Ridley’s stats look like this:

6 games, 49 targets, 34 receptions, 493 yards, 3 touchdowns, 101.3 PPR fantasy points, and 16.9 PPR fantasy points per game.

Over a full season, that’s 131 targets, 91 receptions, 1315 yards, 8 touchdowns and 270.5 fantasy points, which would have been good enough last year to tie Cooper Kupp as the WR4.

Nobody else on the team will benefit as much from these lost targets than Ridley. Acquisition Hayden Hurst is unlikely to sniff 100 targets as Hooper did last year, and Russell Gage is no threat whatsoever. There’s plenty of room in this offense for Julio Jones to get over 160 targets and for Calvin Ridley to get over 120. Plus, the possibility of the 31-year old  Jones declining in effectiveness remains present, only adding to Ridley’s upside.

Efficiency

Let’s take a look at Ridley’s stats over his first two seasons in the NFL:

You’ll notice his first two seasons were very similar, but his usage did increase on a per-game basis despite Austin Hooper’s increase in usage last year. His career catch rate of 68.6% is very good compared to other wide receivers around the league, and scoring 17 touchdowns in his first 29 games is elite. These stats show a receiver who is not only efficient with his targets, but also consistent. As the targets increase this year, the rest of the stats will follow. Fantasy success occurs when talent meets opportunity, and it certainly seems like Ridley has both. If you still doubt his talent after seeing those stats, you should see him play.

Players Drafted Near Ridley

Calvin Ridley’s current ADP in PPR leagues is 41st overall, as the WR16, and his ECR is 37th, as WR17. I expect his ADP to rise a bit as the season draws closer due to his popularity as a breakout pick, but it shouldn’t get too high, as people will still be attracted to household names in this year’s deep WR talent pool.

The thing that makes Ridley so valuable is that the players around him is his combination of a high ceiling and a higher floor than every other WR drafted around him (except maybe Robert Woods). Players like Odell Beckham (ADP 32), Cooper Kupp (ADP 33), and Amari Cooper (ADP 35), have similar ceilings but not the floor that Ridley has, as they have more risk attached to their target share than Ridley does. For more on why I’m taking Ridley over OBJ, check this out.

The other positions at this spot in the draft don’t offer the guaranteed value Ridley does. Unless Mahomes falls to the 30s, don’t even think about a quarterback here. Waiting on tight ends is generally a good idea, and there shouldn’t be any value in this part of the draft at that position. Running backs at this point in the draft such as Melvin Gordon (ADP 29), David Johnson (ADP 31), and Chris Carson (ADP 38), have big question marks about whether or not they will produce. If you draft two RBs in the first three rounds and Ridley in the late 3rd or early 4th round, you are in great shape.

I have Calvin Ridley ranked as my WR10, with a season of 125 targets, 84 receptions, 1119 yards and 8 touchdowns. The scary part is, I think those numbers are conservative. A few more catches and TDs makes him a top-5 fantasy receiver. He’s in an eerily similar situation to Chris Godwin last year, who was drafted as the WR16 at pick 41, exactly identical numbers to Ridley now. Godwin also was the #2 option on a pass-heavy team with a bad defense in the NFC South. He was also a popular breakout candidate last year, experts praised him with consensus just as Ridley is being praised now. Godwin finished as the WR2 last year. Ridley is being drafted close to his floor right now. This kind of value cannot be passed up at his price. This hype train is for real, and it’s time to hop aboard.