NBA Free Agency 2020: 5 teams with the most to lose

Montrezl Harrell, #5, LA Clippers, (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
Montrezl Harrell, #5, LA Clippers, (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) /
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MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – MARCH 04: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks waits for a free throw during a game against the Indiana Pacers at Fiserv Forum on March 04, 2020 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – MARCH 04: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks waits for a free throw during a game against the Indiana Pacers at Fiserv Forum on March 04, 2020 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) /

1. Milwaukee Bucks

The next few months will be among the most pivotal in the history of the Milwaukee Bucks franchise.

When the season resumes, Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks will be among the front-runners to win this year’s title. But if they fall short of that goal, they’ll head into a stomach-churning offseason that could determine their long-term trajectory.

Regardless of how the Bucks fare in the playoffs, they’re a lock to offer the Greek Freak a five-year supermax contract as soon as they’re allowed to do so in October. His willingness to sign said deal will be the single most important decision of the offseason.

Last spring, a source close to Antetokounmpo told ESPN’s Malika Andrews “that getting to the NBA Finals is not just an ambition, it could tip the scales as he weighs his contractual future.” Winning a championship or appearing in the Finals would likely bode well for the Bucks’ chances of retaining Antetokounmpo long-term, but an early-round exit could make him reconsider his future in Milwaukee.

Either way, the Bucks will have Antetokounmpo under contract through at least next season. But if he balks at signing a supermax, they may feel pressured to entertain trade offers for him rather than risk losing him for nothing as a free agent in 2021.

The Bucks could also lose Robin Lopez ($5.0 million) and Wes Matthews ($2.7 million) this offseason if they decline their respective player options for 2020-21, but that pales in comparison to Antetokounmpo’s upcoming decision. His refusal to sign the supermax would set off a yearlong free-agent feeding frenzy that could single-handedly swing the NBA title picture.

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Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Early Bird Rights.