RBC Heritage odds 2020: 5 dark horse picks to win at Harbour Town

Which sleeper picks could come out and win the RBC Heritage as dark horse golfers?

Golf and the PGA Tour made their full-blow, fan-less return last week and are back again as the RBC Heritage tees off at Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head, SC on June 18. It’s a loaded field that will be vying for the title at a tough course as a record-setting 114 former PGA Tour winners will be teeing it up in 2020 at the RBC Heritage.

Looking at the RBC Heritage odds from Golf.com, the favorites are obvious, even if we only have one week of recent performance to look at. Rory McIlroy (+1200)  is the outright favorite to win at Harbour Town while Bryson DeChambeau and Justin Thomas (+1400) are tied for the second-best odds. Meanwhile, Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa at +2000 are right behind John Rahm (+1600).

Picking favorites to win easy — or easier. However, as we saw Daniel Berger win last week at Colonial, a course that plays quite similarly to Harbour Town, we need to be looking for sleeper picks and dark horses that could win the RBC Heritage. These five golfers have the game to contend.

5. Gary Woodland, +4000

While we’ve seen the bomb-and-gouge approach become so much more prevalent on the PGA Tour, that strategy is not feasible (unless DeChambeau unlocks something new) at Harbour Town. This is a course that takes great accuracy off the tee and on the approach while not necessarily needing to be the longest hitter.

Gary Woodland may not have the best odds as a sleeper pick for the RBC Heritage but he could be a money-maker. He’s plenty long when he needs to be with the driver but has slimmed down to try and become a better finesse player. And with that, Woodland has been highly accurate with stingers off the tee and with his irons, ranking seventh on the PGA Tour in greens in regulation percentage.

After finishing ninth at the Charles Schwab Challenge, the 2019 U.S. Open winner could come up with another victory.

4. Adam Hadwin, +12500

Throughout his PGA Tour career, Adam Hadwin hasn’t necessarily been the most consistent player on the PGA Tour. Having said that, when he’s been on and at a course that fits his eye and game, he’s proven that he can be a stud and a great value when placing bets. Harbour Town seems to be a course that will fit what he does well.

Hadwin averages just under 300 yards per drive (296.3) but is in the top-35 in terms of driving accuracy and greens in regulation percentage. Plus, getting hot with the putter never hurts and the Canadian has that type of ability on the greens as well. He’s got the longest odds of anyone on this list but he could very much make some noise at the RBC Heritage.

3. Abraham Ancer, +6000

Prior to the quarantine and coming off of the President’s Cup at the end of 2019, Abraham Ancer was rightfully one of the rising stars on the PGA Tour. He registered a No. 2 and No. 6 finish in January and finished 12th at the WGC-Mexico Championship as well. Lucky for him, he seemed to recapture some of that form last week as he ended up finishing 14th at Colonial.

Overall, Ancer’s game may not necessarily fit the form of these other players. In fact, he doesn’t rank inside the top 50 in any of the four individual Strokes Gained metrics. However, he’s 36th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green due to his lack of a glaring weakness. That’s the type of game that could play well at Harbour Town and put Ancer in contention to win.

2. Joel Dahmen, +8000

For my money, Joel Dahmen would probably win the hypothetical contest of the best golfer on the PGA Tour that no one is talking about. Going back to before the hiatus, he finished 14th at Pebble Beach, fifth at The Genesis, fifth at the Arnold Palmer and then came out in his first tournament back last week with a solid finish at 19th. His game also fits the prototype for what you need to win the RBC Heritage.

Dahmen isn’t terribly long off the tee but isn’t bad by any stretch at a hair over 296 yards on average. Better yet, though, he hits 66.92 percent of his fairways and is 11th on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. The simple truth is that he may not be a spectacular player but he’s consistent and playing at a high level. If he can do that at this course, he’ll be in the mix to win.

1. Viktor Hovland, +6000

My love for Viktor Hovland is not particularly a secret, just to get that out of the way. However, when you look at his play and how Harbour Town suits him, the love has a ton of reason behind it this week.

Hovland is the perfect blend of having enough distance while being incredibly accurate off the tee. He averages 301.2 yards per drive while also hitting over 65 percent of his fairways. Furthermore, he’s underrated for a young player with his irons as he is 33rd on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach. His big bugaboo right now is his game around the green as his chipping could hurt him.

Despite that obvious flaw, Hovland has played well for much of the year and since turning pro. Furthermore, he got more into the flow with every round last week at the Charles Schwab, shooting 70-68-68-66. On that trajectory and with his game, he’s a great value bet at 60/1.