Serie A: Is home-field advantage gone this season?

With no fans in the stands because of coronavirus, Serie A teams are playing in empty stadiums. Will home-field advantage disappear as a result?

Serie A is back, although the fans in the stands are not. While everyone is happy to see teams back in action, what will the lack of fans do to home-field advantage for the rest of this season?

It’s a good question since home support, the loud and boisterous fans that attend soccer matches, often function as a “12th man.” Home support is a must for teams as they try to grind out wins. But empty stadiums could mean that home games are no different than road ones, something Serie A teams need to navigate over the coming weeks.

While last week’s Coppa Italia final won by Napoli featured “virtual fans” for TV viewers to see, it did absolutely nothing to improve the atmosphere inside Rome’s empty Stadio Olimpico. If anything, it was just another reminder that real spectators aren’t allowed to see games in person because of fears the virus will spread.

Before the pandemic forced the league to go on hiatus (with two-thirds of league schedule complete), 14 of the league’s 20 teams saw an advantage to playing at home. Juventus, Lazio, Udinese and Parma, in that order, benefited most from playing at home when one calculates how many more goals each team scored or conceded at home.

The theory is well established. Home teams have the psychological benefit of being backed by thousands of people, along with the negative effects that home fans can have on the referee and the opposition.

What about now? It seems as if defending champions Juventus have the most to lose from having no spectators in attendance. Before the pause, the club averaged the third-most fans per game, but will now have to play before no one at the state-of-the-art Allianz Arena.

This trend of losing home edge emerged in the Bundesliga, the first of Europe’s top leagues to return to action this spring. Without fans, the league’s first 27 games revealed a trend: only five teams won at home.

While the season resumed this weekend with only four matches (games that had been postponed from matchday 25 because of the virus outbreak), three home sides won. While it is a small sample size, is it a harbinger of things to come?

Where the home-field advantage will be noticed most is on the title race between Juventus and Lazio. While the Old Lady holds a one-point edge with 12 matchdays left to be played, half of those games are at home.

The biggest game of the season, which will feature Juventus hosting Lazio on July 20, will be played in Turin. If being at home holds no advantage whatsoever, a surging Lazio could very well exploit this change in what has been a very unusual season.