Is Aaron Jones a fantasy football regression candidate for 2020?

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

Is Aaron Jones bound to be a regression candidate in 2020 fantasy football?

2019 was the year the Green Bay Packers decided it was a great idea to give running back Aaron Jones the ball. Under previous head coach Mike McCarthy, it was all about running antiquated routes for Aaron Rodgers to check out of. With new head coach Matt LaFleur, Green Bay embraced the ground game unlike it has in years. But could Jones regress in fantasy football?

The Fantasy Footballers recognize there is no way Jones will rush for as many touchdowns again in 2020 as he did last year. But despite the Packers using a second-round pick on AJ Dillon out of Boston College, they still believe Jones will be a top-10 fantasy running back this season. He may regress a bit, but he’s still worthy of being your RB1 in pretty much any fantasy league.

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Will Jones lose a few carries with Dillon’s addition to the Green Bay backfield? Yes, but the guys expect the bulk of the rookie’s carries to come from Jamaal Williams’ workload from the season prior. He’s the one to worry about from a fantasy perspective, not so much Jones, who the guys are still very high on.

Can Aaron Jones sustain his fantasy football success again in 2020?

Even if Jones loses roughly two dozen carries this season off last year’s total, he has proven himself to be an adept pass-catcher out of the backfield. So his production as a receiving back should be able to offset that to some degree in many PPR leagues. Though the volume won’t change all that much, his regression is more likely to come from not having as many touchdowns.

Depending on how LaFleur goes about calling plays from goal-line situations, Jones could still be in great shape to score well over 10 touchdowns on the ground again in 2020. If Green Bay does lead in a bunch of games as it did a season ago, there may be as many opportunities for Jones to have carries and help milk the clock for the Packers en route to victory.

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So will Jones regress in fantasy this year? Possibly, but don’t count on it. He’s not a one-year wonder and he plays the right position in the right offense on the right team to have continued success. Jones may not be one of the first four running backs taken in your upcoming fantasy draft, but he’s sure to be someone’s RB1 this year. His regression is a bit overstated.