Fantasy football: Should you draft a QB early or later in the draft?

The Middle Round QB

There were 23 quarterbacks in the data who were drafted from QB3 to QB10. All were drafted in between the 4th and 8th rounds. Only 9 of them finished in the top ten in points per game. That’s a 39% chance. What makes it even worse is that only 5 of these middle round quarterbacks matched or improved on their draft position in points per game, a 22% chance.

This data clearly points toward the conclusion that drafting a middle round QB is a horrible idea. Yes, the other positions in this range are by no means guaranteed to return their value, but there’s plenty of room for them to go up, unlike these quarterbacks, who are being drafted near their peak in value and usually don’t return it. This swing in value happens because of the volatility in QB production, which can cause large swings in value.

Despite these findings, I find myself with hope in the mid-round QB. Remember those 5 quarterbacks that returned or exceeded their value? Those were 2017 Russell Wilson, 2019 Russell Wilson, 2017 Cam Newton, 2018 Andrew Luck and 2017 Kirk Cousins. All were rushing quarterbacks, even Cousins that year, who had 179 yards on the ground and 4 rushing TDs. Also stated earlier, rushing quarterback Deshaun Watson returned top-4 value twice while being drafted as the QB2.

Rushing quarterbacks are known to have a higher floor than non-mobile passers, as their rushing totals won’t slump as easily as passing totals can. This seems to be true, as they bust at a lower rate. So why do I have hope in mid-round QBs this year? Well, because the QB3-QB6 are all rushing quarterbacks. I expect them to have good years and could easily return on value. It’s unlikely that all of them will remain top-10 QBs, but the security and upside of the rushing production makes me believe that it’s possible. If one of them falls to you, pulling the trigger might not be such a bad idea. It worked out for 6th round pick and QB1 overall Russell Wilson in 2017.

I would avoid quarterbacks in this range such as Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees because while they could have great seasons, recent trends do not support them holding their value. It’s better to look later in the draft and take a few dart throws that actually give you a good chance to find a top 10 QB without spending significant draft capital on him.