The Whiteboard: Welcome to the Rockets’ carousel of aging 3-and-D wings

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The Houston Rockets are the most unpredictable wild card for the 2020 NBA Playoffs. That was true before ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported Thabo Sefolosha would be opting out of the Orlando bubble, and it remains true after The Athletic’s Shams Charania followed up with the news that Luc Mbah a Moute will be replacing him.

Welcome to the Rockets’ small-ball carousel, which leads the league in aging, possibly over-the-hill 3-and-D wings by a hefty margin.

Again, this was the case in Houston long before Wednesday’s reported move. Tyson Chandler was the only rotation player on the entire roster taller than 6-foot-8, and after trading away Clint Capela before the trade deadline, it was apparent general manager Daryl Morey was pushing all his undersized chips to the middle of the table.

For better or worse, the Rockets were all in on their ultra small-ball experiment.

Russell Westbrook had more room to operate than ever. James Harden was the NBA’s leading scorer, flanked by shooters who weren’t hesitant to let it fly. P.J. Tucker was capable of holding things down at the 5, and Robert Covington’s defensive versatility and moderately respectable perimeter shot unlocked a new level of floor-spacing, empowering this group to unleash an unholy barrage of 3s.

That experiment was running on fumes by the time the NBA suspended its season, and no team needed a break more than Houston — especially with Harden’s efficiency in the toilet for over a month. Soft-tissue injuries are a concern for every team in Orlando after months of inactivity, but with time to rest and recharge, the Rockets were pegged as a dark horse title contender. If they can string together a few months of hot shooting before fatigue sets in, they can compete with any of the league’s heavy-hitters, especially in a calmer atmosphere devoid of fans.

For that formula to materialize, the Rockets need as much competent wing depth as possible, and for that to be the case, Mike D’Antoni needs as many 3-and-D skill-sets as he can get his hands on. (Whether he actually utilizes them is another matter, given his penchant for shortening up his playoff lineups worse than Morey shored up his team’s average height.)

Losing Sefolosha is more like ominous wind chimes in the breeze than a full-on death knell, but it’s not insignificant either. His contributions this season seem minimal on paper, especially for a 36-year-old: 2.2 points and 2.3 rebounds in 10.6 minutes per game over 41 appearances. His 40.7 percent shooting from the floor and 27.8 percent shooting from 3 weren’t particularly helpful either.

However, that’s still 10-11 minutes per game the Rockets need to replace, and this was a team already short on wing talent that wasn’t, ya know, excessively flirting with “over the hill” territory.

Jeff Green and DeMarre Carroll were late additions to that category, almost as though their positional versatility and historically unreliable 3-point shots was meant to provide the wing blueprint for Covington, Ben McLemore and Danuel House Jr.

Adding Mbah a Moute only adds to the hilarity. He hasn’t played since 2018-19, when he suited up for a grand total of four games with the LA Clippers. The season before, however, was his last productive year in the NBA, when he averaged 7.5 points in 25.6 minutes per game on 36.4 percent 3-point shooting for a 65-win Rockets squad.

Houston will be hoping the now 33-year-old Mbah a Moute is closer to the guy he was the last time he was in Clutch City than the guy he was last season, but the volatility of this team’s 3-point shooting has never been more noticeable.

Mbah a Moute, a career 33.5 percent shooter from distance, has only shot better than 36 percent from deep in two of his 11 NBA seasons, but they came over the last three seasons he’s played. Carroll hovered around 38 percent from deep in his prime with the Atlanta Hawks, but has seen those percentages plummet as his health, minutes and athleticism have declined in recent years.

Green, ever Mr. Unreliable, had shot 41.2 percent from long range (with decent volume) over his 10 games with the Rockets, but before that, he hadn’t shot better than 35 percent from downtown since the 2012-13 campaign. House is a mostly proven shooter in his short career, but everyone is well aware of RoCo’s up-and-down affair with the 3-point line over the years. The same goes for Tucker, a corner specialist who’s not quite as automatic from everywhere else.

This, of course, says nothing of Westbrook’s horrendous 30.4 percent career mark from 3, or of Harden’s struggles with efficiency once the rigors and grind of postseason basketball kick in.

Having the last four months off will ensure the Rockets enter these playoffs with more stored energy, but the margin for error is slim for such a small-ball unit. If the long ball goes careening off the rim, Houston doesn’t have the size to turn offensive boards into extra possessions, and when shots aren’t falling, it’s a lot harder to muster up the energy for defensive stops when you’re undersized.

Replacing Sefolosha with a seasoned vet like Mbah a Moute doesn’t change the equation too much for the Rockets, but it is a calculated risk. Mbah a Moute hasn’t played since 2018-19, yet his last good season came with this group. He’s older, yet he’s not as old as Sefolosha. The list of pros and cons goes on and on.

However, in a postseason where fresh legs will be hard to come by with an added emphasis on avoiding injury risks, D’Antoni needs to be able to rely on his bench a bit more than usual. With a plethora of switchable defenders and streaky shooters at his disposable, there’s no way of telling what the hell he’ll be getting out of the Rockets’ rotating wing carousel on a nightly basis.

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