What if Sam Hinkie was still the Philadelphia 76ers’ general manager?

2016-17

After having the worst record in the league, the Sixers won the lottery and were awarded the first overall pick in the 2016 NBA Draft. A different executive would likely not change this fact, so it’s fair to assume that Hinkie is still in possession of No. 1 overall.

Considering that a higher draft pick is directly correlated to a higher chance at a superstar, there’s little reason to believe Hinkie would do anything with the pick other than select Ben Simmons. He was the clear-cut No. 1 prospect at the time, and still to this day is the best player from the class.

The Sixers also owned the 24th and 26th overall selections, which Colangelo used on Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot and Furkan Korkmaz, respectively. While many consider these picks to be misses, especially since Pascal Siakam went 27th, it’s unfair to assume Hinkie would’ve picked him. Neither European wing was a horrible pick either; Luwawu-Cabarrot is a rotational wing for the Brooklyn Nets now, Sixers fans know Korkmaz’s value quite well, and there weren’t too many hits later in that draft. It’s reasonable to assume that either these two, or players of comparable value, would’ve been drafted by Hinkie.

Free agency, though, would’ve been vastly different. Colangelo’s biggest move of the summer was inking Jerryd Bayless to a three-year, $27 million contract. Double-takes at that number are justified; even in a summer where the salary cap rose dramatically, that’s an overpay.

The Sixers also signed Gerald Henderson to a two-year deal worth up to $18 million. The second year was only guaranteed $1 million, so it wasn’t a terrible contract, but the signing of Henderson himself was questionable.

And then there was Sergio Rodriguez, a former MVP of the EuroLeague with a history in the NBA. His one-year deal amounted to $8 million, a tally he definitely didn’t live up to.

For those keeping track, that’s $26 million combined on three veterans who did little more than take minutes from youngsters. There were few reasons to bring vets like them on in the first place, especially at those prices. In all honesty, there wasn’t much incentive to tie up money in anyone.

One-year deals with upside would’ve been the play for a rebuilding team like the Sixers entering Joel Embiid’s rookie year. Swings on guys like Gerald Green, Dion Waiters, Seth Curry and the like would’ve been better investments at a fraction of the cost. It’s fair to assume he signs at least one player from that group.

Ben Simmons probably still misses the entire season though, which is a bummer. Luckily Dario Saric finally came over, a decision he likely would’ve made regardless of who was in charge. It took him a while to catch on, but working through those warts was crucial for his future with the Sixers.

As for the midseason moves, one that sticks out is the Jerami Grant trade. There was little chance of Hinkie trading a cost-controlled 22-year-old for Ersan Ilyasova, who was 29, even though a future first-round pick came with the veteran. Grant stays the whole year, splitting minutes with Saric at the 4.

Then there’s that dreaded Nerlens Noel deal. The whole situation with Embiid, Noel and Jahlil Okafor was not easy to navigate, and there’s no way to know if Hinkie could’ve gotten a better offer. But it is likely that Hinkie trades one of the two before he absolutely has to, or that he just stands pat and bets that the restricted free agent market isn’t kind to Noel. In other words, he probably gets a better package for Noel, such as an actual first-round pick rather than a heavily protected one.

No Ilyasova probably cramps spacing for Embiid, as neither Saric nor Grant was a good floor-spacer back then. But is that crucial in a season where the Sixers aren’t actively trying to win? They didn’t even know what they had in the big fella yet. Sacrificing assets to make his rookie season easier paid minimal dividends; he only played 31 games in 2016-17, and after Embiid was shut down, Ilyasova was flipped for two second-rounders.

Speaking of those 31 games, it’s unlikely Embiid plays the last two against Portland Trail Blazers and Houston Rockets. There was a bit of mismanagement with his injury for those games, as he had to exit the game in Portland and miss the next three games. Why he came back for the Houston game at all remains one of the biggest blunders of the Colangelo tenure.

If he doesn’t play against Houston, there’s a chance that his rookie season isn’t over. But since I’m not a doctor, I’m not going to assume he plays any more after Portland. In this world, Embiid finishes his rookie season roughly the same way as before: flashes of brilliance but clouded by uncertainty. This makes his contract negotiations in the fall of 2017 relatively similar to what actually happened (something I’ll discuss on the next slide).

As for the rest of the team, it’s definitely not as good as the real-life version. Ilyasova and Henderson did help the Sixers win some games here and there, so not having them naturally makes the product worse. Only a pop-off from one of those low-cost swings (Green, Waiters, Curry, etc.) would make up for the veterans. Wishful thinking.

So Philly probably approaches 60 losses with complicated optics. Sure they sucked again, but Embiid was freaking awesome, Saric looks like a real NBA player, Covington and Grant are still around, the center situation is somewhat cleaner and Simmons looks like he’ll be ready for 2017-18.

Oh, and they have a better lottery position than before. Granted, the Sacramento Kings leapt to third anyway, which allowed the Sixers to exercise swap rights, so it probably doesn’t matter. But what they do with that pick definitely changes under Hinkie.