Why Brandin Cooks is the Texans WR to draft, not Will Fuller

By Ben Grivas | Jul 11, 2020

LOS ANGELES, CA - DECEMBER 29: Wide receiver Brandin Cooks #12 of the Los Angeles Rams runs on to the field for the game against the Arizona Cardinals at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on December 29, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images) /

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NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – DECEMBER 15: Will Fuller #15 of the Houston Texans plays against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium on December 15, 2019 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images) /

Production

Fuller

Will Fuller’s touchdown rate has been bonkers the past few years. He’s played in 28 games in the past three seasons and scored 14 touchdowns. He did this despite getting only 166 targets, creating a TD rate of 8.4%. Lamar Jackson‘s TD rate last year was 9%. This cannot stay that high. 4For4 did a study about metrics that predict success for wide receivers, and TD rate was the lowest on the list, with a correlation of .16, indicating little to no correlation in predicting future performance. This means that just because Fuller’s been a TD machine in the past, doesn’t mean he should be expected to keep it up.

Fuller has averaged 12.6 PPR fantasy points per game in the past three years, which would have been good enough for WR31 last year. Even if he gets more targets because of Hopkins’ departure, his touchdown rate will fall back to earth, mitigating any increase in value.

Now let’s talk about his consistency. Fuller had two games where he had over 11.1 PPR fantasy points last year. Granted, he scored 21 and 53.7 points in those games, but how many people actually started him those weeks? The weeks before those blowup games he scored 5.3 and 1.6 fantasy points. Who would start him following both those weeks, and the season of low production preceding them? Will Fuller is the ultimate boom-bust player and that really hurts his fantasy value because he’s way less consistent and way more TD dependent than higher end boom-bust stars like Mike Evans or Amari Cooper.

Cooks

Cooks is entering his 4th team in his 7th season in the NFL. He’s managed to put up numbers with three different quarterbacks, so why not Deshaun Watson? Watson is a clear upgrade from Goff, whose struggles hurt Cooks last year. From 2015-2018, Cooks put up big-time numbers, finishing as the WR13, WR10, WR15, and WR13 in PPR scoring. That’s proven production in four straight seasons.

His consistency isn’t top tier, but it’s better than Fuller’s. In 2017-2018, Cooks was 14th in the WR Consistency Rankings, while Fuller was 22nd. Cooks averaged 2 full PPG higher than Fuller, while playing in 14 more games during this span. He did this despite Fuller scoring 11 touchdowns in his 17 games. Cooks has been more consistent, scored more fantasy points, and did it with a lower TD rate (6.0% from 2015-2018). The numbers speak for themselves.

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