Evan Engram, Hunter Henry and Tyler Higbee: Target or Avoid?

Evan Engram, Hunter Henry and Tyler Higbee: Target or Avoid?

The tight end position is often the trickiest to deal with in fantasy football on a yearly basis. Some players prefer to draft one of the sure bets early on while others prefer to punt the position entirely and wait until the 13th round to take one. I analyzed recent trends for tight ends in this article to determine the best spot to pick tight ends, and settled that in most drafts, I would probably end up taking one or two flyers late in the draft.

In this article, I’d like to examine a tier of tight ends currently being drafted in the seventh round. Evan Engram, Hunter Henry and Tyler Higbee are all very intriguing options to me. They all have shown top-five production, but they carry significant risk. I mean, isn’t that what makes them seventh-round picks?

These players are similar in value, but are very different players in different situations. It’s important to know whether or not each of them are worth targeting in the draft. In this article, I judge how risky each player is and compare it to their upside. This determines how valuable they are to me. Let’s get into it with the young buck on the Giants.

Evan Engram

Evan Engram broke out his rookie season, which is uncommon for a tight end, and it indicates that he’s a special talent. He’s been valued by the fantasy community throughout his career, carrying a final ADP in the sixth round in 2018 and the seventh round last year. Now a seventh-round pick, Engram brings decent potential but also a decent amount of risk in 2020.

Engram’s injury risk has lowered his draft stock this season. He missed eight games in 2019 and five in 2018. This isn’t encouraging, but what about his production? What can you expect from him this year?

To answer that, take a look at the stats of the major receivers on the Giants last year:

Engram received the most targets per game and finished second to Golden Tate in fantasy points per game. With a crowded receiving core in 2020, it’s easy to write Engram off to lose production this year, but I still think he should be the top target. All of these receivers have inflated targets per game numbers because they were never all on the field at the same time, but the wide receivers should lose the most when all on the field, as they mostly compete with each other for targets, not Engram.

But is he worth his ADP? Engram put up only 11.6 and 11.5 PPR points per game in his first two seasons, which isn’t exactly elite production. While the TD regression he received last year should be sustainable with an improved offense, Engram has a capped ceiling. He’ll never dominate his team’s targets in the way that the five tight ends being taken ahead of him can do. He can definitely return TE6 value if he remains healthy, but he’s not breaking into the top-3, and staying healthy is a big concern. He’s a solid, every-week starter for most of the season, with a good chance that he’ll miss games to injury. I’d say that’s worth a pick over a bench player, as the scarcity of the position makes TE1s valuable.

Risk: Extensive injury history

Upside: No higher than TE5 due to the crowded receiving core

Verdict: Draft, but only if you want to take a backup to fill in for when Engram gets injured.