Nick Foles blueprint to success with Chicago Bears is right in front of him

Nick Foles is in line to start for the Chicago Bears this year, but what numbers would mean he had a successful season?

For the Chicago Bears, the Mitch Trubisky Experiment is almost over. They finally added competition or an outright replacement by trading for Nick Foles, which is itself an indictment of Trubisky. Then, however obviously, they did not pick up Trubisky’s fifth-year option for 2021.

The Bears have consistently said there well be an open competition for the starting job. Based solely on the non-Philadelphia Eagles part of Foles’ track record, Trubisky has a legit chance to win the job heading into Week 1 and it’s a virtual certainty he’ll start games this season regardless.

In a certain light, the Bears might be a competent, consistent quarterback away from having a really good offense. Look at this skill position depth chart.

RB-David Montgomery, Tarik Cohen
WR-Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Ted Ginn Jr., Riley Ridley, Cordarrelle Patterson
TE-Jimmy Graham, Cole Kmet

Montgomery and Robinson look like legit “No. 1 guys” at their positions. Miller looks to be headed for a breakout season, Ginn is a veteran deep threat and Ridley has some promise. Cohen and Patterson are unique weapons.

Being better than Trubisky is a low bar based on last year, and his 2018 numbers were inflated by a couple big games. Foles played his best when the structure around him was operating at a high level in Philadelphia, and Bears head coach Matt Nagy runs a similar system to the 2017 Eagles. He and Eagles head coach Doug Pederson are branches of the Andy Reid coaching tree.

Foles has limited physical talent, so he easily loses that particular battle to Trubisky. He needs scheme and play design to foster his success, and what Nagy did with Trubisky in 2018 proved he can make chicken salad out of something no one would eat.

What numbers would make a successful season for Nick Foles?

First, starting all 16 games would be a good start to making 2020 a successful season for Foles. That would mean he stayed healthy, and just as importantly played well enough to keep Trubisky on the bench all season. Due to being a backup out of the gate, poor performance or injury, Foles has never started more than 10 games in a season.

Let’s look at Trubisky’s passing numbers during the 2018 campaign to try to set a statistical bar for Foles this year.

Mitch Trubisky 2018: 3,223 passing yards, 66.6 percent completion rate, 24 TD, 12 INT, 95.4 passer rating, 7.4 yards per attempt, 11.2 yards per completion, 7.3 adjusted yards per attempt

Averaging 230 yards per game, with a 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio while completing two-thirds of his passes would not be a challenge for a large chunk of NFL quarterbacks. The yards per attempt numbers are average, and while the 11.2 yards per completion sort of stands out it was tied for 18th among 33 qualified quarterbacks in 2018.

Let’s say Foles averages 240 passing yards per game this year. That would be 3,840 yards for 16 games. More realistically, again projecting 16 games, l’ll give Foles in the neighborhood of 3,500 yards. Add in 25 touchdown passes, with about half as many interceptions (or less) and a completion rate around 66 percent, and it would be a successful season for Foles. Another critical component would be the Bears winning some games, so let’s set that number that ideal number in the rang of playoff contention-nine wins.

I still say the easiest NFL bet this year is that Foles and Trubisky will both start more than one game for the Bears. So tabbing a successful season for Foles, as it would be doing the same exercise for Trubisky, also qualifies as the best-case scenario.