Carlos Martinez had a rough first outing for the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday. They’ll need a strong performance from him moving forward.
The National League Central figures to be a tight division, with the St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago Cubs, and Cincinnati Reds all projected to be a factor in the race, with no one team clearly standing out among the rest. Thus, in a 60-game season, every player will be important, and that’s especially true with the starting pitching.
The Cardinals’ rotation already took a hit when it was announced that Miles Mikolas was going to miss this season due to injury. It then became more important for Carlos Martinez to step it up in his return to the starting rotation.
Can Carlos Martinez come through for the Cardinals this year?
Martinez made his 2020 debut on Tuesday night, and it did not go well. In 3 2/3 innings, he allowed six earned runs and seven hits as the Cardinals lost in Minnesota to the Twins. It was Martinez’s first start in nearly two years. In 2018, after missing some time due to injuries, the Cardinals moved Martinez into the rotation, and last year he served as the team’s closer, earning 24 saves with a 3.17 ERA as the Cardinals won their division.
The decision to move Martinez into the rotation gained a lot of attention leading up to this season. He has had a lot of previous success starting, as he was an All-Star in both in 2015 and in 2017.
Jordan Hicks, who was projected to be the Cardinals’ closer this year, opted out of the 2020 season due to health concerns over COVID-19. The team has Kwung Hyun Kim as the closer now, and with Mikolas now out, it looks like putting Martinez into the rotation was a needed move. However, he’ll have to pitch better than he did on Tuesday night.
The Cardinals’ front end of the rotation figures to be strong, as Jack Flaherty and Dakota Hudson are coming off strong 2019 campaigns while longtime veteran Adam Wainwright also figures to be a solid contributor. Flaherty and Wainwright were both great in their first starts, while Hudson wasn’t as strong, allowing four runs in 4 1/3 innings. Daniel Ponce de Leon gets the ball next in the number five spot.
However, the back end of the rotation could be what separates the Cardinals from the rest of the pack in the NL Central. If Martinez can return to his 2015-2017 form, that would be huge for St. Louis. But can he do it?
According to FanGraphs, Martinez’s fastball velocity was down in his first start. He was averaging 92.1 MPH on Tuesday night after he had been 95.8 MPH. last year, coming out of the bullpen. And as late as 2017, when he was starting, that number was at 95.6 MPH. As a reliever, he was under 50% usage of that pitch, while throughout his career he’s been over 50%, so as a starter it will become more important that he regain that velocity.
Slider use was also up in his first start, and the velocity on that pitch was way down, at 81.8 MPH. The changeup velocity was down as well.
We’ve already written about how Paul Goldschmidt could be the x-factor for the Cardinals’ offense, as he is coming off a subpar 2019. As much as they need Goldschmidt to produce, the Cardinals’ lineup still figures to be pretty solid, as they have good players at several different positions. The Cardinals, known for good starting pitching in recent years, will need their rotation for them to come through again this year.
Hopefully, for them, Tuesday night was just a bump in the road and Martinez can regain the form that the team needs. If he’s able to do it, watch out, because the Cardinals will be tough to beat.