Fantasy Football: Best and worst value picks by round (1-8)

Draft days are approaching, and it’s best to be prepared.

Here we are! The NFL preseason would normally be kicking off on Sunday, meaning that fantasy drafts are right around the corner. With the recent outbreak of COVID-19 on the Miami Marlins, many are concerned that there won’t be an NFL season, or at least not a full one. Maybe I’m being too optimistic, but I’d rather have fun with whatever season we get than abandon all hope prematurely.

Anyways, as drafts approach, average draft position (ADP) becomes a valuable resource to spot value. Some players are over valued or under valued by the public consensus, and it’s important to find out who these players are before you draft. I’ve identified the players who bring the most and the least value in each of the first eight rounds of the draft. I took ADP data from FantasyPros that considers a 12-team PPR league format. For each round, I’ve posted a table of the ADP data and then my recommendations for who to target and avoid based on how much value they bring to their ADP. Enjoy!

Round 1

Best: Saquon Barkley – ADP 2 (1.02)

There are no bargains in the first round since the consensus rankings are usually correct in assessing value at the start of the draft. As you would expect, the top-5 picks are slam dunks this year, but I find the most value in the #2 spot. Picking CMC isn’t really a “value” at the first pick, even though I would obviously draft him in that spot. When considering the top 5 picks, I determined that Zeke lacks as much upside as Saquon, Kamara lacks his floor, and it turns out that Michael Thomas is not a bellcow RB. Saquon Barkley is the best value because he combines CMC’s upside with Zeke’s floor. Also, taking Barkley gives you the opportunity to snipe the McCaffery owner at every turn later in the draft. The #2 pick is at least equal to the #1 pick as the most valuable in the draft.

Other Contenders: Christian McCaffery (1.01), Alvin Kamara (1.05)

Worst: Derrick Henry – ADP 7 (1.07)

The seventh spot in the first round suffers from a massive drop in value, assuming the top five running backs and Michael Thomas all get drafted. Your best options here are usually Devante Adams, Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon or Kenyan Drake. Henry carries the least upside out of this bunch. He’s being drafted at his ceiling, as he isn’t going to repeat 1540 rushing yards and 18 total touchdowns. Granted, I would take him 9th overall, but that gap is larger than it seems considering the importance of your first round pick.

Other Contenders: DeAndre Hopkins (1.09)