Craig Kimbrel’s brutal start to 2020 summed up in one stat

Craig Kimbrel’s 2020 season is off to a disastrous start

A pitcher the caliber of Craig Kimbrel should be perfectly capable of preserving a three-run lead in the ninth inning, as the Chicago Cubs asked him to do on Monday night against the Reds. But, for the Cubs, the game got too close for their comfort level, a worrying sign in Kimbrel’s second season on Chicago’s North Side.

Kimbrel faced six Reds batters on Monday with the Cubs leading 8-5. He walked four of them, hit one, threw a wild pitch, and recorded just one out. Despite not surrendering a hit, he was charged with two earned runs as the Cubs eventually turned to Jeremy Jeffress out of the bullpen for the final two outs.

There’s one stat that helps illustrate how disastrous Kimbrel’s lone outing so far in 2020 was. He walked more batters in a third of an inning, four, than the six pitchers who’ve started a game for the Cleveland Indians—Shane Bieber, Mike Clevinger, Carlos Carrasco, Adam Plutko, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac—have in 39 innings (three). He hasn’t been called on to pitch either of the Cubs’ last two games as his ERA on the season sits at a gaudy 54.00.

Craig Kimbrel’s start to the 2020 season has been historically bad

When Kimbrel arrived in Chicago during the 2019 season, he was on the fast-track to Cooperstown and establishing himself as one of the most dominant closers in baseball history. From his rookie season in 2010 to 2018, Kimbrel led all pitchers with a 1.91 ERA and 333 saves, 65 more than second-place Kenley Jansen. His 14.7 strikeouts per nine innings were second behind only Aroldis Chapman. Utilizing an upper-90s fastball and devastating curveball, opponents swung and missed his pitches 16.6 percent of the time, third over that span behind Chapman and Koji Uehara. Batters hit just .153 against him in the first nine years of his career, best in the league.

But then he sat out the first two months of the 2019 season while waiting for a contract offer, and while the Cubs eventually signed him to a three-year, $43 million deal in June, he hasn’t been the same pitcher since. He appeared in just 23 games in 2019, his fewest since 2010. His ERA ballooned to 6.53, more than 4.5 runs a game above his career average. If Kimbrel had enough qualifying innings, he would’ve been ranked the worst pitcher in the big leagues.

He gave up two or more runs in a game five times last season, something he did only 13 times between 2010-18 while pitching at least an inning. His strikeout ratio fell to 31.3 percent, a seven-point decline from the previous year and down 18 points from 2017. His once-lethal fastball lost its bite. Between 2016-18, opponents hit .160 off his fastball; they batted .326 off the pitch last season, including six home runs in 46 at-bats. He surrendered seven home runs on fastballs in 2018 but in three times the number of at-bats. In 2017, he gave up only five in 175 at-bats.

Despite his struggles on Monday, manager David Ross is still sticking by him to close out games for now and believes Kimbrel just needs more work. “He hadn’t had work in six days,” Ross said following the game, according to The Athletic. “Part of that is he’s got to knock off some rust and continue to trust his stuff. I thought the fastball was electric tonight, we just weren’t in the zone enough. I think he didn’t trust his fastball enough tonight.”

“Get him back to being who he is. I want him to trust himself. A big thing about baseball is confidence. When you get that confidence, get a couple good outings under your belt, things seem to roll a little bit better.”

Jeffress is a reliable backup option if Kimbrel continues to struggle; Jeffress saved 15 games with a 1.29 ERA for the Brewers in 2018. The comparison between Kimbrel’s one outing and the Indians’ six games isn’t just an indictment of his performance but a recognition of how dominant the Indians have been. They’re only the second team in MLB history to have their first six starters go at least six innings while allowing no more than one walk, joining the 1988 Tigers.

The Indians have had no trouble finding the strikeout. The Cubs, meanwhile, have to hope Kimbrel finds not only the zone not also his form, or they’ll be forced to turn elsewhere when a game is on the line.