Fantasy football: Fantasy impact of Damien Williams opting out

Rizzla discusses Kansas City Chiefs running back Damien Williams opting out, and examines the fantasy implications.

According to Ian Rapoport, Kansas City Chiefs running back Damien Williams has decided to opt-out of the 2020 NFL season due to COVID-19 concerns.

Williams is the highest profile skill position player to opt out, and may just be the beginning of a wave of fantasy relevant players who choose personal and family safety over a payday. Williams opting out leaves a major hole on the Chiefs depth chart behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and depending on what camp you are in, leaves them without their presumed starter. Damien Williams was being drafted as the 30th running back off the board according to FantasyPros consensus ADP.

Damien Williams opting out means that Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the unquestioned starter, but there is legitimate debate which (if any) of the backs behind him will be able to step up into a number two role. Ideally, CEH handles the bulk of the running back snaps, mitigating the impact any of Darrel Williams, Darwin Thompson, DeAndre Washington, or Elijah McGuire have behind him. This means that the Chiefs may reach into the free agent well after cutdowns to bring in some veteran competition. The most likely names are LeSean McCoy or Spencer Ware after Week 1 so their contracts are not guaranteed, but someone like Devonta Freeman may also be in play if he is willing to acquiesce on his contract demands.

Fantasy Impact

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

While I already had Clyde Edwards-Helaire as my RB10, there is no denying that his upside and floor have both been raised with the news of Damien Williams’ opt out. Now a potential late first round pick in redraft leagues, CEH should have a role resembling that of a workhorse. 220+ carries and 70+ targets now seems like his floor this season, making him a potential top five finisher at his position. There was a lot of debate this offseason regarding just how good Edwards-Helaire is, and whether or not he would be able to wrestle a large enough workload away from Damien Williams to live up to his ADP. With Williams now out for the season, CEH may now receive 80-85 percent of the snaps, instead of the 60-75 percent he may have seen otherwise. He is now worth whatever draft capital you wish to spend on him in redraft leagues. He is not the fastest back, but became a first round pick based on his vision, contact balance, cutting ability, passing game ability, and propensity for big plays. There was no better running back for Kansas City in this draft class, something that will become painfully obvious to early drafters who passed on him. Fire him up as an RB1 and don’t look back.

Darrel Williams

Darrel Williams played ahead of Darwin Thompson last season, and should get the nod once again to open the season. It is entirely possible that Thompson passes him on the depth chart this season, but Williams may be the better complement to Clyde Edwards-Helaire from a skill set perspective. Williams can function as the short yardage and goal line breather type of back, and is a worthwhile waiver claim for those deep leaguers looking to make a speculative add. As noted above, a free agent may be brought in to muddy the depth chart behind CEH, so be mindful of that when submitting your FAAB bid. It is also important to note that Williams has averaged a below replacement level 3.4 yards per carry to this point of his career. His inefficiency likely means he may be ticketed for a minor role at best.

Darwin Thompson

At this time last year the Darwin Thompson hype train was getting out of control. Damien Williams has always had his detractors, so the hot shot rookie was expected to earn a large role alongside Carlos Hyde and Williams. While he was always questionable to beat out Hyde (who ran for over 1,000 yards last season), he had the skill set to become the team’s primary pass catching back. Unfortunately, he did not have the pass protection skills or strong practices to make a legitimate move on the depth chart, especially after Carlos Hyde was dumped for old Andy Reid favorite LeSean McCoy. Barring a free agent addition to the backfield, Thompson should be able to earn a larger role this season, but is essentially a shorter, less talented, poor man’s version of Edwards-Helaire. He is worth a draft and stash, but expectations should be tempered for the intriguing sophomore. Thompson was a major disappointment on his touches last season. He had 37 carries, but was only able to muster 3.5 yards per attempt en route to 128 rushing yards. He added nine receptions for a poor 43 yards. The low touch count is one thing, the marked inefficiency is another.

DeAndre Washington

As the Kansas City Chiefs roster currently stands, it may be DeAndre Washington who earns the role as the number two back for Kansas City. He will need to learn the system, so has that working against him for an early season role as Edwards-Helaire’s direct backup, but has shown more in the NFL to suggest that he can eventually pass both Darrel Williams and Darwin Thompson in a depth chart battle. The lack of a true offseason means it may not happen until Week 3 or 4, but the risk is there, and is something that those looking to invest in the backfield behind CEH should be aware of. As you can probably tell by now, what actually happens behind Edwards-Helaire is totally up in the air, especially with the distinct possibility of a free agent addition muddying the waters looming. Washington is worth a speculative add or late round addition, especially in best ball leagues, but again, expectations should be tempered until we have more clarity on how this backfield will look once the season actually begins. However, Mahomes may lead a push for him to take hold of the backup job as the two were teammates at Texas Tech.

Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes does not see his fantasy value affected tangibly, but there is now a little extra risk with drafting him early. If Edwards-Helaire were to go down, the Chiefs would be down to DeAndre Washington, Darrel Williams, and Darwin Thompson (and probably a free agent signing like Spencer Ware or LeSean McCoy). This would lower Mahomes floor, as the offense would become considerably less explosive without either CEH or Damien Williams in the backfield. However, while Damien Williams is the faster and stronger back, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the more talented and versatile back, and is a much better fit for the offense. Having him on the field as often as possible was always required for Mahomes to return to something resembling his 2018 form of explosiveness. Mahomes is still worthy of being the first quarterback off the board in redraft leagues.