Fantasy Football: Why you shouldn’t draft DK Metcalf over Tyler Lockett

Tyler Lockett is still the WR1 for the Seahawks in 2020.

The fantasy community believes that Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf are equally valued, as they’re back to back in ADP as WR21 and WR22. Two of the four sites that build up FantasyPros’ ADP actually have Metcalf higher. Don’t get me wrong, Metcalf had a great rookie year, but he certainly didn’t cement himself as the best receiver on the team. Tyler Lockett has been Russell Wilson’s top target for the past two seasons and he isn’t going anywhere in 2020. I agree that both receivers should be valued somewhat similarly, but Lockett is still a tier above Metcalf in my mind. I think the Metcalf’s coveted “Calvin Johnson like” upside is way more unrealistic than many believe, and he’s being overvalued by upside fiends because of it.

Trust me, as a Seahawks fan, I love Metcalf. He’s the most exciting player on our offense after the small man himself Russell Wilson. It’s easy to take a look at that 6’4, 230 lbs beast of an athlete who just had a good rookie year and expect him to take a major leap forward, but that’s just not likely to happen. I’m going to break down why D.K. Metcalf is overrated and Tyler Lockett is underrated in fantasy this year. To do this, I’m going to take a look at the men, the myth, and the legend of the Seahawks passing game.

The Men

DK Metcalf

Many saw DK Metcalf as a steal in the draft as the 64th pick due to his freak athleticism. He was seen as a raw prospect with a basic route tree, but with major potential if properly developed. Metcalf indeed turned out to be a steal, putting together one of the most impressive rookie receiving campaigns of 2019. He only had 10 less targets than Tyler Lockett, leading many to assume that he’ll take over the WR1 role this year. Take a look at his stats:

Impressive stuff for a rookie. Now, you would think that a big-bodied receiver like Metcalf would be Russell Wilson’s favorite redzone target, right? I mean look at the stats, he had 7 touchdowns. Shockingly, the answer is no. Metcalf had the 14th most redzone targets in the league with 17. He caught only 5 of the 17, catching 4 touchdowns in the process. The more impressive redzone receiver was actually, you guessed it, Tyler Lockett, who led the league in redzone targets. Lockett had 23 targets for 17 receptions and 7 touchdowns. That’s right, little Tyler Lockett was a better redzone receiver last year than DK Metcalf.

Tyler Lockett

At 5-10, 182 pounds, Lockett was often written off for his size, much like his teammate Russell Wilson. It took him a few years to earn his spot as Wilson’s preferred receiver, but since he got it, their connection has been historically great. In 2018, he was the first receiver in history to give his quarterback a perfect 158.3 passer rating whenever he was targeted. His levels of efficiency would demand regression for most receivers, but he followed 2018 up with an equally impressive 2019. Take a look at his career stats:

The targets may not seem impressive, but the efficiency numbers are nuts. He has an elite career 7% touchdown rate and a 71.5% career catch rate, both of which would rank amongst the highest in the league every year. Touchdown Wire recently named Lockett the best slot receiver in the league, beating out stars like Chris Godwin, Allen Robinson and Cooper Kupp.