Aaron Rodgers’ moment, Chiefs must block for Patrick Mahomes and more
The Green Bay Packers are in their camp, and Aaron Rodgers has reached the second crossroads of his illustrious career.
Aaron Rodgers has been here before. This time, he’s simply the old, not the new.
In 2008, Rodgers had everything to prove. After starring for 16 seasons with the Packers, Brett Favre retired. Then unretired. He was eventually dealt to the New York Jets, and Rodgers, a first-round benchwarmer for three campaigns, was taking over.
Rodgers responded with 4,038 passing yards and 28 touchdowns. Despite Green Bay’s 6-10 record, the talent was undeniable. Two seasons later, Rodgers was a Super Bowl MVP and champion. In 2011, he won the first of his two MVPs.
For the last dozen years, No. 12 has been a dominant dynamo in Green Bay. At times, he’s singlehandedly kept the Packers in the title chase. Last season was a prime example, elevating a flawed roster and rookie head coach to the NFC Championship Game.
This offseason, the national expectation was Green Bay’s front office going all-in to support Rodgers.
Instead, it drafted his replacement. No, they traded up for his replacement.
Now, Rodgers has something to prove once more.
Jordan Love is the clear heir apparent, and Rodgers’ job is to make Green Bay general manager Brian Gutekunst agonize over when to make the transition. Love will sit this season and likely next, considering the financial component.
In 2021, Rodgers counts $36.352 million against the cap with $31.556 million counting as dead money. However, the Packers save $22.6 million in 2022 by releasing or trading their superstar quarterback.
Over the past two seasons, Rodgers has played every game and thrown 51 touchdowns against six interceptions. It still wasn’t enough to keep Green Bay from actively attempting to replace him in the coming years.
Bluntly, Rodgers has to play his ass off for the next two seasons to put himself in a great position, and Green Bay in the ultimate vice.
At that juncture, does Gutekunst move on while acquiring a few first-round picks, or does Love sit through another valuable year of his rookie deal? While the picks help, they don’t erase the reality of losing a top-flight quarterback.
Ultimately, Love must be the choice unless he’s an unmitigated disaster behind the scenes. Ego and economics say so.
For Rodgers, his ending likely comes after the Packers, something he acknowledged on The Ringer’s “10 Questions With Kyle Brandt” podcast. The writing is on the wall.
Therefore, Rodgers isn’t attempting to prove himself for another contract in Green Bay. He’s aiming to prove the Packers made a big damn mistake and then get paid elsewhere into his 40s while shoving it down Green Bay’s proverbial throat.
So many years ago, Rodgers was the young gun. He replaced a legend. He proved worthy of the post.
Now, Rodgers is in Favre’s place. He’s defiantly ready to prove the Packers screwed up, all the while trying to win another title in a very tense Titletown.
Power rankings
8 head coaches facing hot seats in 2020
1. Doug Marrone, Jacksonville Jaguars
2. Matt Patricia, Detroit Lions
3. Dan Quinn, Atlanta Falcons
4. Adam Gase, New York Jets
5. Anthony Lynn, Los Angeles Chargers
6. Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears
7. Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns (it’s Cleveland, the seat is always hot)
8. Bill O’Brien, Houston Texans
Quotable
"“Now we have that information. So we’ve traded ideas and things. And we’re really hopeful. We’re going to work extremely hard. George is such a great fit for what we do. He’s a tremendous player. (I’m) sitting here looking at the vision statement for what we want in a player. And George checks every box.”"
– San Francisco 49ers general manager John Lynch on the 2021 cap and George Kittle’s next deal
Kittle is going to smash the tight end market, which has been one of the more stagnant over the past five years. In the offseason, the Cleveland Browns doled out the biggest deal in the position’s history, giving Austin Hooper $44 million and $23 million guaranteed over four years. Look for Kittle to receive somewhere near $15 million (or more) per year, putting him more in line with top receivers.
Additionally, there are two other tight ends to note. Kansas City Chiefs star Travis Kelce has two years left but an extension is likely in his future. The Chiefs could be in a tight cap situation next year with the COVID-19 impact and one solution is extending Kelce past 2021.
Finally, Zach Ertz of the Philadelphia Eagles has an identical situation to Kelce. However, the Eagles are in an odd spot. Ertz is phenomenal and only 29 years old. Yet Philadelphia loves youngster Dallas Goedert and plans to feature him more in 2020.
It would help the Eagles — who have the worst cap situation next winter — to extend Ertz, but will they if Goedert breaks out?
Podcast
Random stat
From 1990-93, the NFC East won four consecutive Super Bowls with the New York Giants, Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys all beating the Buffalo Bills.
No other division has even claimed three in a row.
Info learned this week
1. Chargers pay Bosa with a high-stakes gamble
Joey Bosa must feel like a quarterback after signing his new deal.
Last week, Bosa signed a five-year, $135 million extension with $102 million guaranteed, a record in all regards for a defensive player.
Bosa is now the 12th highest-paid player in the game on an annual basis and ranks first among non-quarterbacks. At 25 years old, Bosa has 40 sacks over four years and is a two-time Pro Bowler.
Certainly, Bosa deserved to be paid, but the Los Angeles Chargers are banking on both his health and future productivity.
The latter is a solid bet. Bosa is entering in prime and will remain there for the majority of the extension. There’s no reason to think he won’t produce when on the field. However, health is an issue. Bosa has already missed 13 games due to injury. Typically, guys don’t become less injury-prone with age.
Bosa earned his lucrative new deal, but the potential pitfalls are evident on a contract typically reserved for quarterbacks.
2. Newton will be tested severely after opt-outs in New England
Cam Newton is looking at a growing challenge with the New England Patriots.
When Newton signed in June, the task was already tall. Replace Tom Brady after two years of serious shoulder and foot injuries. Now, he must do so without a bevy of stars who have opted out over COVID-19 concerns.
Among the seven New England players who won’t play in 2020 is safety Patrick Chung, linebacker Dont’a Hightower and right tackle Marcus Cannon. The defense loses two of its big-name players, while Newton loses one of his best protectors on a shaky line, to begin with.
The Patriots need Newton to find his old form. They need 32-year-old Julian Edelman to stave off Father Time. They need N’Keal Harry and Mohamed Sanu to step up on the outside. They need Sony Michel to become a much more effective runner, and they need the defense to be great again despite losing Chung, Hightower, Danny Shelton and Kyle Van Noy.
That’s a bevy of needs to simply be decent.
3. Antonio Brown is suspended, and now we wait
On Friday, the NFL announced Antonio Brown is suspended for the first eight games of the 2020 season But will he be suiting up come Week 9?
Brown spent last year being a whirlwind issue for the Pittsburgh Steelers, Oakland Raiders and Patriots, all while nixing a trade to the Bills. He forced his way out of Pittsburgh after multiple off-field issues, then had his famous meltdown over a helmet switch in Oakland before calling general manager Mike Mayock some unflattering things.
Finally, New England lasted less than two weeks after Brown’s alleged sexual assault and rape of a woman in 2017 and ’18 came to light.
Now, Brown is free to sign with any club although he can’t play until Week 9. With COVID-19 gripping the league and franchises doing everything they can to avoid even a hint of problems, Brown isn’t exactly a prized commodity. If he signs, it’ll be on the cheap. Exactly how a contender would like it.
At 32 years old, his talent is undeniable. When bought in, he’s one of the greatest receivers in NFL history, evidenced by his 11,263 yards, 75 touchdowns, seven Pro Bowl berths and four First-Team All-Pro seasons.
Still, the person matters here, and Brown — who has announced his retirement three times in the past 12 months — has proven to be a nightmare.
Any club taking him on is getting a great player and a migraine.
4. Forget running, Clyde Edwards-Helaire better start blocking
Damien Williams scored the final two touchdowns in Super Bowl LIV. Now, he won’t be suiting up for Kansas City in 2020. Enter Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Edwards-Helaire was the 32nd-overall pick in April’s draft, brought in by Chiefs general manager Brett Veach to essentially replace Kareem Hunt. The plan was to ease him into the lineup with the veteran Williams getting his snaps, especially in pass-blocking situations. However, Williams opted out to be with his ailing mother, leaving Kansas City’s prized rookie without a safety net.
With Patrick Mahomes and his $503 million contract under center, the Chiefs need a back who can pick up blitzes. Edwards-Helaire didn’t do much of that at LSU, so Veach is left two options. Hope Edwards-Helaire can improve quickly in this regard, or adjust.
Bet on the latter.
The Chiefs signed veteran tailback Spencer Ware late last season and he performed well as a blocker before being sidelined with a shoulder injury. He’s available once more and would make ample sense as a cheap investment. Kansas City could also utilize fullback Anthony Sherman more, who is tied for being the longest-tenured player on the team.
Either way, Veach and the Chiefs need to take a long look at the best approach to protecting their prized possession.
5. Clowney needs to accept his reality
When the Houston Texans slapped the franchise tag on Clowney last year, a source told me Houston would happily pay him $14-15 million per year. However, per the same conversation, Clowney wanted $20 million. The two sides never got close, and he was traded to the Seattle Seahawks.
Fast forward to free agency this winter. Clowney wanted to be put on par with DeMarcus Lawrence and Frank Clark. Tough ask when despite having a good year, he only had three sacks in Seattle and again dealt with injury.
Here we are in August, and Clowney remains a free agent. It’s time to sign a one-deal, incentive-laden deal and admit you horribly overshot the market. The former No. 1 overall pick should be calling up the Tennessee Titans, Browns, Eagles and Seahawks — all teams who showed reported interest — and see if any offers stand, or what their best ones are.
It’s time to cut a deal, dominate 2020, and reset his value.
History lesson
In 1974, the Steelers won their first Super Bowl on the back of their Steel Curtain defense.
How dominant was the group? In the AFC Championship Game and Super Bowl IX, Pittsburgh held the Oakland Raiders and Minnesota Vikings to a combined 46 rushing yards on 42 carries.
Parting shot
Matthew Stafford and Gardner Minshew testing positive for COVID-19 is a glimpse into how the 2020 season can be turned upside down in an instant.
Currently, Stafford and Minshew having the illness doesn’t appear to have a serious impact on the campaign. Both will hopefully have a quick recovery, and each team will be back to business.
However, think of what happens if a starting quarterback contracts it during the season. Most players, even the great ones, can be replaced for a week in the NFL. Not quarterbacks. The Baltimore Ravens aren’t winning without Lamar Jackson. The Seahawks have no chance without Russell Wilson. On down the line.
Maybe we never see a starting quarterback miss time with the coronavirus during the year. Here’s to hoping. Yet teams should be planning as though it’s a certainty. They should be looking for premium backups, even at a premium price. This year more than ever, they could factor into the playoff race and maybe even start a postseason game.
It’s baffling how so many contenders have no depth behind their quarterback. Those teams are playing a very, very dangerous game.