These five PGA Championship sleepers could win at Harding Park.
The PGA Tour‘s hiatus forced by the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States led to either the postponement or cancellation of all four major championship tournaments in the 2019-20 season. But now majors are back on the menu as the Tour heads to Harding Park for the 2020 PGA Championship, the lone major championship to take place in the season calendar.
After winning last week at the WGC-St. Jude Invitational, Justin Thomas comes into the 2020 PGA Championship, which tees off on Thursday, Aug. 6 in San Francisco, as the betting favorite according to GolfBet on The Action Network at +900. The other favorites to win at Harding Park aren’t difficult to guess.
Thomas is followed by Brooks Koepka (+1100), the two-time defending champion at this particular major, and a threesome at +1500 comprised of Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau. Xander Schauffele (+1800) is the only other golfer with better odds than +2000. And for those wondering, Tiger Woods, making just his second start since play resumed on the PGA Tour, is at +3300.
What’s interesting about Harding Park, though, is that it’s not the most terribly difficult track that these players will see. Subsequently, it may not be a favorite or one of the biggest-named golfers who gets the win. Instead, a sleeper or dark horse could emerge. So, looking at players with odds worse than +5000 to win the 2020 PGA Championship, these five sleepers have a chance.
PGA Championship sleeper No. 5: Tom Lewis (+20000)
In relation to the other possible sleepers at the 2020 PGA Championship, Tom Lewis stands out a bit as he doesn’t fit the overall statistical profile of most of these guys. What brings Lewis, especially at this number, to the forefront is the fact that he’s tough for anyone to beat when he gets hot and he finished his week at Memphis leaving scorched Earth behind him.
After shooting 3-over for his first two days at the St. Jude, Lewis finished up his week with a 61 and 66 on Saturday and Sunday, respectively, which pushed him up into a tie for second. On the European Tour and even in earning his PGA Tour card via the Korn Ferry last year, Lewis has proven he can come into big moments and thrive. If what he found on the weekend in Memphis can carry over, this might be a good bet to take a chance on.
PGA Championship sleeper No. 4: Abraham Ancer (+5500)
Though it’s been quiet, Mexico’s own Abraham Ancer has been quite hot since the PGA Tour restart. He’s only finished outside of the top 15 in one of his five starts and was second place at the RBC Heritage. Now he comes into the PGA Championship hunting for his first major and with the all-around game that could serve him well on any course and in any tournament, major championship or not.
Ancer ranks 20th this season in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, a testament to his all-around game, while also ranking 42nd in Strokes Gained: Putting. If there’s one concern with Ancer, it’s his lack of length off the tee. If he can stay accurate (65.43 percent driving accuracy this season) and avoid too much rough, though, he has the mental make-up of a big-game hunter that could put his sights on the first major of 2020.
PGA Championship sleeper No. 3: Viktor Hovland (+6000)
Full disclosure, this is banking on rookie Viktor Hovland’s overall form since the restart rather than what he showed at the St. Jude. After winning the Puerto Rico Open prior to the hiatus, Hovland reeled off five-straight top-25 finishes, including three top-12 showings and an outright third-place finish at the Workday Charity Open. The past two outings have been lesser but his game is perfect for this course.
If he’s in form, Hovland is the perfect blend of power and accuracy off the tee and with his irons to tear Harding Park apart. He ranks 12th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-tee and sixth in Strokes Gained: Approach this season while sitting at 11th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. If he can continue to show improved touch around the green and have even an average putting performance, the rest of the game is in a place where he could capture the first major of his career at just 22 years old.
PGA Championship sleeper No. 2: Ryan Palmer (+12500)
Ryan Palmer is the hottest golfer in the world that no one is talking about. He finished 15th in Memphis last week while ranking fourth in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Two weeks prior at the Memorial, he finished outright second. For the season, he also ranks 27th on the PGA Tour in that category and his putting has been the only thing slowing him down.
Putting is the most sporadic aspect of a golfer’s game on the Tour, though, as it can largely come or go, something Palmer can attest to. And with his accurate, albeit short, game off the tee and solid iron play, getting him at this number is enticing. With how he’s performing, he could very well find himself in the final group on Sunday hunting down a victory.
PGA Championship sleeper No. 1: Jordan Spieth (+7000)
The fact that Jordan Spieth can even be mentioned as a sleeper speaks to how far his game has fallen. And to be sure, he’s still not all the way back as the troubles with his driver persist. Yet, his short game remains elite and his ball-striking with his irons has improved greatly as of late. Though he ranks 120th on the season in Strokes Gained: Approach, Spieth was 16th in that category at the St. Jude and 11th at the Memorial.
At Harding Park, the penal rough is going to cause Spieth to make some errors if he keeps spraying it off the tee, which is a pretty safe bet given his state of play. Having said that, his strong iron and wedge play and the potential for a white-hot putter at +7000 could very much be worth a look if you’re trying to find a sleeper.
All stats are via PGATour.com unless otherwise noted.