The Whiteboard: Who will land the final playoff spot in the West?

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All due respect to the Washington Wizards, but when the NBA announced it’s structure for the restarted season and the convoluted structure for determining the final playoff spots, No. 8 in the West was the only real question mark. The Memphis Grizzlies held that position when the season was suspended with a 32-33 record and a 3.5 game lead over the New Orleans Pelicans, Sacramento Kings and Portland Trail Blazers who were in a three-way tie. At that point, Memphis was playing great basketball and it seemed likely they’d be able to hold off any challengers.

The NBA bubble is now a week old and chaos has taken hold.

The Kings and Grizzlies have faded, with Memphis’ dwindling odds pushed closer to the brink by a season-ending meniscus tear suffered by Jaren Jackson Jr. The Pelicans have also struggled but not quite as dramatically. Surging into relevance have been the Portland Trail Blazers, Phoenix Suns and San Antonio Spurs. All three of those teams have a point differential of plus-2.0 or better in the bubble and combined they are 7-2 with wins over contenders like the Clippers and Rockets.

Who has the best odds of making the Western Conference playoffs?

Before play in the bubble began, FiveThirtyEight’s projection system gave the Pelicans (45 percent) and Grizzlies (34 percent) the best odds of landing the West’s final playoff spot. The Trail Blazers (12 percent) were longshots and both the Suns and Spurs had less than a one percent chance. A week later, the Blazers are leading the pack with a 42 percent chance and both the Suns and Spurs are in measurable territory, at 2 percent each.

While the Blazers are looking strong, they do have an extremely tough schedule left — Nuggets, Clippers, 76ers, Mavericks and then finishing with the Nets. The Spurs and Suns are in similarly tough boats, a reflection of how much the level of competition is raised in the bubble by eliminating eight bottom-feeding teams. The Spurs are also the only one of these three who still have a game left against the Grizzlies or Pelicans (they play New Orleans on Sunday). The Pelicans, meanwhile, have five games left — Kings, Wizards, Kings, Spurs, Magic — which appears to be a much easier slate than the Grizzlies’ lineup of Jazz, Thunder, Raptors, Celtics, Bucks.

Remember that the quirk of this playoff structure allows for a play-in “tournament” between the No. 8 and No. 9 seeds, with the No. 9 seed needing to win twice to jump into the postseason. Both of those slots are still in play and as teams jockey for position, the difference between No. 8 and No. 9 is huge. It might only be a game or half a game that ultimately divides them in the standing but whoever ends up in the higher position will only need to win one out of two head-to-head matchups to advance.

What the Suns and Spurs are doing right now is incredibly fun but what’s in front of each team seems to favor the Blazers and Pelicans most heavily. The prize for whoever breaks through, of course, is a chance to play LeBron James and the Lakers.

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