The Whiteboard: Can the Grizzlies beat the red-hot Trail Blazers twice?

The Whiteboard is The Step Back’s daily basketball newsletter, covering the NBA, WNBA and more. Subscribe here to get it delivered to you via email each morning.

As the playoff odds of the Portland Trail Blazers have surged in dramatic fashion, those of the Memphis Grizzlies’ have plummeted. They were the No. 8 seed when this bubble business began; eight games and six losses later they’ve dropped a slot and now find themselves facing the first-ever playoff play-in scenario. If they lose to the Trail Blazers on Saturday, their season is over. If they win, they get to play Portland again on Sunday, one last chance to win and advance.

These eight bubble games have been a nightmare for Memphis. Their lone wins came against teams with nothing to prove — a Bucks team playing with Giannis Antetokounmpo and a Thunder team without Dennis Schroder. Memphis lost Jaren Jackson Jr. to a season-ending knee injury, never got to see Justise Winslow on the court, watched De’Anthony Melton recede into irrelevance and some of their most reliable outside shooters fall off a cliff. Ja Morant, the soon-to-be Rookie of the Year, has nearly averaged a double-double but he’s also shooting 22.5 percent from beyond the arc on 5 attempts per game, dragging his overall shooting percentage under 50.0 percent.

So, can the Grizzlies beat the Trail Blazers twice?

And yet, despite the river of impotence they’ve been wading through, the Grizzlies still have a chance (FiveThirtyEight pegs it at 7 percent). If you’re looking for reasons why they could pull it off or things that could suddenly break in their favor, here are a few variables:

The Grizzlies’ bubble point differential is the same as their regular-season one: In their eight bubble games and in their 64 games before the season was suspended, the Grizzlies were outscored by an average of 1.0 points per 100 possessions. Their 2-6 record in the bubble makes it sound worse than it is. They lost a two-point game to the Spurs. One bounce in that game goes the other way and they’re in the No. 8 seed instead of Portland.

They’ve played Portland tough this season: The bubble opener for both teams was a head-to-head matchup with Portland escaping with a five-point overtime win. It took some incredible shot-making from Carmelo Anthony to even force overtime in that game and, again, one bounce there goes the other way and the roles here are totally reversed. Memphis also beat Portland by seven in the middle of February, a game in which they were able to hold Damian Lillard to 7-of-19 from the field.

Regression and progression to the mean: Damian Lillard is incredibly hot right now but at some point he’s going to regress back towards his season averages. Several Grizzlies, on the other hand, have been remarkably cold. Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks and Brandon Clarke all shot better than 33.3 percent on 3s during the regular season. In the bubble, they’re a combined 26-of-105 (24.7 percent). If everyone starts playing a bit more like themselves, on both sides of the court, it’s an advantage for the Grizzlies.

CJ McCollum is playing through a fractured back: Yeah, I know. OUCH.

#OtherContent

The Bulls did the responsible thing and parted ways with Jim Boylen. Now it really is a new era of Chicago basketball.

On this week’s NBA Power Rankings: chemistry in Boston, the Seattle Storm are a juggernaut, the Thunder’s revenge plans, the good time Suns and the unflappable Damian Lillard.

Win or lose, play-in spot or not, the Phoenix Suns made the most of the NBA bubble.