Can Joel Embiid outplay the Boston Celtics for an entire playoff series?

For the second time in three seasons, the Celtics and 76ers will square off in a playoff series.

That’s right folks, the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers are set to play each other this postseason. But since Boston’s 4-1 trouncing of Philly two summers ago, a lot has changed.

The Celtics exchanged Kyrie Irving for Kemba Walker and got a healthy Gordon Hayward. They also traded Aron Baynes to the Phoenix Suns and let Al Horford sign with the Sixers, opting to go to the flea market for big men. Philadelphia, meanwhile, pushed its chips in for Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris, and turned the first gamble into Horford and Josh Richardson.

The disparity is evident: The Celtics will pay their centers $14.2 million this season, while Horford and Joel Embiid will combine for $55.5 million of the Sixers’ cap. Boston is cohesive and versatile, while Philly is talented and enormous.

To this point, Boston’s method has been much more effective. The Celtics finished this season with twice as many wins as losses at 48-24, and end with the East’s 3-seed despite so many changes. Internal improvements and spectacular coaching have outweighed roster turnover.

Philadelphia has the talent to fight with anyone, but it hasn’t fit together well. The trio of Embiid, Horford and Ben Simmons actually lost points this season, posting a net rating of minus-1.0 per 100 possessions. It’s hard to win games when three of your best four players lose ground, and the result is a disappointing sixth place in the East at 43-30.

Everything that’s happened screams a dub for Boston. They’re one of two teams to finish in the top five in both offense and defense this season, with the other being the LA Clippers. The Celtics’ biggest strength is that they can beat you in multiple ways. The four-headed beast of Walker, Hayward, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum gives them so many points of attack, and the “Jay Team” gives opponents fits on defense.

Fuse that with Daniel Theis‘ strong rim protection and low-maintenance offense, and you have one of the most coherent starting lineups in the league. Each player can get his fill without going rogue or record-scratching the offense, and the trio of Brown, Hayward and Tatum can switch almost everything on defense.

Joel Embiid has to control everything for the 76ers to have a chance against the Celtics

Boston has an army, but Philly has a Hulk. Embiid was quiet in that playoff series in 2018, but Horford, the man who stymied him back then, is now his teammate. The Celtics don’t have any big bodies to contain him, as evidenced by Philly’s 3-1 record against Boston this season.

To be fair, few mortals in The Bubble have guarded Embiid well at all. In his first four games after the restart, the big fella averaged 30.0 points, 13.5 rebounds and 3.3 assists on 61.3 percent true shooting. None of the opponents had a big who could contain him, allowing Embiid to either draw fouls or straight up bully them.

But per usual, Embiid’s greatness was short-lived. He suffered a wrist injury early in last Sunday’s game against the Portland Trail Blazers, sat out Tuesday against the Phoenix Suns and re-aggravated the ailment on Wednesday against the Toronto Raptors.

Not only is his season perpetually on thin ice, but the Sixers also can’t seem to exist without him. Embiid was a plus-33 in the seven seeding games he played (177 minutes), meaning that Philly was a minus-3 in the 159 minutes he sat. That number doesn’t seem so bad…until you remember the Sixers just won their last seeding game by 38 points. Before that contest, the number was minus-32.

Prior to the NBA bubble, the Sixers actually treaded water without Embiid, but those minutes often came with Simmons, who will miss at least the first round with a left knee injury. Simmons has been maligned for his struggles in the postseason offensively, but he would’ve been a hell of a panacea for these Celtics defensively. He can guard almost anyone in the league, and likely would’ve been Tatum’s check in this series. With him out of the equation, Boston will have a much easier time creating offense.

On one hand, the Celtics don’t employ an individual who can defend Embiid. But head coach Brad Stevens is no slouch schematically and is sure to make his life difficult with double-teams and creative zone defenses.

In addition, Simmons’ absence makes the Sixers’ perimeter defense much weaker. If Tobias Harris has to guard Tatum in space consistently, he’s in for a long night. Horford can check a lot of guys away from the rim, but he’s not a guy you want fighting through screens and closing out shooters. Embiid’s presence on the whole will be a bellwether for the series, but Horford’s viability next to him is also critical for Philly’s success.

If Embiid can get a smaller defender on a switch and continue to be a solid decision-maker like he has been in Orlando, then he can be an offensive hub all his own. The Celtics just have to survive his on-court minutes, because they’re primed to blow the Sixers out of the water when he sits.

If anyone is good enough to be both an offensive and defensive fulcrum in a playoff series, it’s Joel Embiid. But everything around him is much weaker than it should be, which plays right into Boston’s hands.