Fantasy Football: Ronald Jones is the only Buccaneers RB worth drafting

Third-year returning RB Ronald Jones. Third-round rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn. Veteran acquisition LeSean McCoy. Which Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB should you draft?

Every good fantasy manager knows that a strong offense will benefit the team’s lead running back by providing ample opportunities to score at the goal-line. With living legends Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski joining the Tampa Bay Buccaneers high-octane offense, their starting RB is understandably going to be a hot commodity.

So, who is the starter? The Bucs’ RB room is currently as follows:

• Third-year returning starter Ronald Jones.
• 12th-year veteran acquisition LeSean “Shady” McCoy.
• Third-round rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn.

The lead RB for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is a topic of hot debate. Some at FanSided believe McCoy is the sleeper pick, while others believe the backfield is too muddied to invest in.

The answer lies in the past.

Buccaneers’ head coach and Kangol-enthusiast Bruce Arians is a seasoned, creative, offensive mastermind. He is also a stubborn, hot-tempered, old-school stalwart, who prefers to feature his proven players over new talent – even to a fault.

Back in 2015, Arians was the head coach for the Arizona Cardinals. His RB room then consisted of the following:

• Third-year returning starter Andre Ellington.
• 8th-year veteran acquisition Chris “CJ2K” Johnson.
• Third-round rookie David Johnson.

Sound familiar?

Arians stuck with his experienced starter, Ellington, to start the season, with CJ2K as the primary backup and DJ limited and returning kicks. Week 1 against the New Orleans Saints produced the following results:

• Ellington rushed 12 times for 69 yards and 1 TD, plus 3 targets with 1 catch for 7 yards and 0 TDs.
• CJ2K rushed 10 times for 37 yards and 0 TDs, plus 1 catchless target.
• DJ had 0 rush attempts, 2 targets with 1 catch for 55 yards and 1 TD, plus a kick return for 43 yards.

Rookie David Johnson only saw 5 snaps but was extremely efficient with them. However, Ellington unfortunately suffered a PCL injury that ruled him out for the ensuing weeks to come. So Arians naturally went down the pecking order and anointed CJ2K as the new starter with DJ as backup.

Here’s how Week 2 against the Chicago Bears went:

• CJ2K had 20 carries for 72 yards (3.6 Y/A) and 0 TDS, plus 1 catchless target.
• DJ had 5 carries for 42 yards (8.4 Y/A) and 1 TD, plus 2 targets with 1 catch for 3 yards and 0 TDs, and 1 kick return for 108 yards and another TD.

Despite outproducing CJ2K and seemingly guaranteeing a touchdown and/or explosive play per touch, Arians continued limiting DJ’s snaps in favor of CJ2K…simply because he was a rookie. And he would continue to do so for the rest of the season – until CJ2K suffered a season-ending tibia fracture in Week 12 – and ignored the clear signs that Chris was deteriorating in the twilight of his storied career, while DJ was just beginning to blossom as a superstar dynamo.

How do we know this? Because Arians himself essentially said so.

Arians’ team that year was also the focus for Amazon’s inaugural “All or Nothing” series, which took a behind-the-scenes look at the Cardinals’ 2015 season. On the first episode, after their first game with the Saints, an impressed Arians himself told team President Michael Bidwill, “I think [David Johnson] can be a bellcow by Thanksgiving.” [fun fact: BA was all-in on drafting Ameer Abdullah, but the Detroit Lions swiped him in the 2nd round so they settled for DJ in the 3rd instead. Can you imagine how things could’ve turned out?]

He was clearly impressed by DJ’s prolific start and saw his massive potential, yet he continued to stymie him because he simply distrusts rookies and trusts his veterans more. So even if Vaughn were to explode like DJ and exhibit traits of a stud workhorse, history shows that Arians will continue to limit him unless injuries to the existing starters forces a change in the pecking order.

So now that he’s commandeering the Buccaneers, Arians will continue to do as he did, and let his returning starter Jones continue to hold the reins as the team’s lead back. And like in the past, Arians has already confirmed this:

"“RoJo is the main guy,” Arians told reporters Wednesday, via team transcript. “He’ll carry the load. All of those other guys are fighting for roles — [for] who goes in second when he gets tired, maybe who is the third-down guy."

Conclusion:

It seems clear that Arians intends to feature Ronald Jones as his star running back for the increasingly-hyped “Tompa Bay” Buccaneers. BA’s past decisions in nearly identical scenarios resulted with him stubbornly sticking to his initial depth chart, even in spite of overwhelming evidence that he has a superstar-in-the-making rookie under his wing. All signs point to RoJo leading the backfield, with Shady playing on third-downs (competing with fellow pass-catching back Dare Ogunbowale), and Vaughn serving as backup relief & depth.

So on draft day, consider these bold predictions:

• Draft Ronald Jones IF you believe in him and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense.
• Do not draft LeSean McCoy UNLESS you believe Ronald Jones will be injured.
• Do not draft Ke’Shawn Vaughn UNLESS you believe Ronald Jones AND LeSean McCoy will be injured.