Smart NFL teams build through the draft and augment that talent via free agency. These five players will give their front offices headaches in 2021.
The old adage that savvy NFL front offices build through the draft is true. It also happens to be incomplete.
Any team that wants to build a roster capable of contending for a Super Bowl title needs to nail free agency as well. In many ways, selecting which stars to keep is more important than selecting which free agents to bring in.
The potential tightening of the salary cap related to COVID-19 is going to put even more pressure on GMs around the league to make the right decision. Originally, teams were expecting the 2021 cap to come in at a figure of around $210 million. Instead, it looks likely it will settle in somewhere around $175 million. Teams are going to have to tighten their belts considerably as a result.
This list will walk through five guys who represent really tough decisions for their teams. These aren’t the five most talented players set to hit free agency. These are the stars who could make or break a team’s near future based on how they elect to handle their free agency.
Will the Colts bet on T.Y. Hilton to stay healthy?
Colts fans can take comfort in the reality that Chris Ballard is one of the best GMs in the league. He’s done a terrific job adding young talent through the draft. We’re not just talking about good players. Young guys like Quenton Nelson and Darius Leonard can be the bedrock of this franchise for years to come.
One other strategy Ballard has employed is trying to sprinkle in the right amount of veterans to cover holes in his roster. He inherited T.Y. Hilton, but it’s still accurate to say that the Colts rely on him to elevate an otherwise mediocre group of wide receivers.
Perhaps adding Michael Pittman to the mix can finally change that reality. The Colts also hope that Paris Campbell can bounce back from what was a horrendous 2019 campaign. Even if both of those players take big steps forward, the team will still want to hold on to Hilton.
The problem with Hilton is his body has started to break down. He never looked right in 2019 in the 10 regular-season games he managed to play. The fact his yards per catch average dropped from a healthy 16.7 yards per catch in 2018 all the way down to 11.1 a season ago is a huge red flag for production moving forward.
Hilton will be coming off a deal that pays him $13 million when he hits free agency in 2021. The Colts aren’t going to give him that kind of money on a multi-year deal.
Look for Indianapolis to overpay Hilton on a two-year deal that buys more time for their young receivers to develop. Even that kind of contract hinges on him having a relatively healthy, bounceback 2020 season.
Does Patrick Peterson fit the Cardinals’ timeline?
There was a time when Peterson was correctly viewed as one of the most dynamic cornerbacks in the NFL. Unfortunately for he and the Cardinals, age has started to rob him of the elite speed that once made him such a feared defender.
PFF graded him out at 68.6 in his 10 games of regular season action in 2019. That is not anything close to an elite player. Instead, it’s obvious Peterson has regressed to where he’s an average starter. Add in missing six games last year due to a PED suspension and there are myriad worries about his ability to play well over the life of his next contract.
Peterson still projects to be a player who can really help the Cardinals secondary for another season or two. Byron Murphy hasn’t lived up to the hype of his second-round draft status. That puts a ton of pressure onto Budda Baker to cover up everyone else in the secondary’s mistakes.
If the Cardinals can get Peterson back for an average starting salary they should pull the trigger. Otherwise, they should let someone else pay for his post-prime years. They’re a team on the rise that can’t afford to overpay an aging cornerback in a tight market.
Letting Peterson walk might draw ire from some Arizona fans who are desperate to win now, but it’s probably going to be the right decision for this front office.
Is Cameron Heyward too old for the Steelers?
Heyward has been a fixture for Pittsburgh since it spent a first-round pick on him in 2011. His ability to effectively rush the passer from the team’s three-man front is a vital part of how the Steelers get such pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
The question Pittsburgh needs to ask is if it can count on Heyward to be productive. He notched nine sacks in 2019 so he’s still a very good player. The Steelers can’t afford to pay him based on past production, though. Instead, they need to calculate what he can give their defense moving forward.
Heyward will be 32 years old when he hits the open market. The Steelers need to avoid giving him a four or five-year deal that might look terrible in a few years. Here’s another prime example of a situation where a team should try to pay a premium for two years to avoid committing to four or more seasons. Two years at $10-$12 million per season is fair.
Can the Bengals trust A.J. Green to stay healthy?
Green has meant a ton to the Bengals franchise since being drafted by Cincinnati in 2011. The ugly truth is that he hasn’t played a down for the team since the 2018 regular season. The talented but injury-prone wideout only made it through nine games in that campaign.
The Bengals hope he’s going to stay healthy in 2020 and provide a lot of support to rookie quarterback Joe Burrow. That’s a great idea in theory. If Green can defy the odds and stay healthy, Cincinnati could actually have a surprisingly explosive offense. Burrow should be able to do a lot of damage with skill players like Green, Tyler Boyd, and Joe Mixon supporting him.
The big problem with Green is that he’s set to make over $18 million this season. The Bengals cannot afford to start negotiations at a figure anywhere near that total. If Green enjoys a healthy 2020 season that’s exactly what he will demand.
It’s impossible to project what Green will be paid before we see him on the field again. The Bengals front office needs to remember his lengthy injury-history when they get to the negotiating table. If they get overwhelmed by a few good games and a heavy dose of nostalgia they could make a massive mistake in free agency.
Will the Rams overpay Jalen Ramsey after paying a king’s ransom to acquire him?
Ramsey might not be an actual shutdown corner, but it’s also possible that player doesn’t really exist in the modern NFL. No matter what, it’s fair to say that Ramsey is one of the best corners in the game.
The fact that the Rams paid a massive price to bring him over from Jacksonville puts pressure on the team’s front office to retain him in free agency. Giving up two first rounders plus a fourth round pick for his services has set the franchise back in other areas.
Rams general manager Les Snead cannot afford to forget that those draft picks are a sunk cost. Losing Ramsey via free agency isn’t the worst thing that can happen to Los Angeles.
Giving the 26-year-old cornerback a market-setting deal is the biggest potential mistake the Rams can make. Don’t be surprised if that’s what happens.