Oddsmakers aren’t buying the Texas A&M football hype train one bit

Oddsmakers are too smart to play dumb and be high on Texas A&M football.

Texas A&M football could have a great season, but the oddsmakers don’t think they will.

According to SportsBetting.ag, the Texas A&M Aggies have the fourth-best odds to win the SEC West this year at +900 and only the fifth-best odds to win the SEC Conference Championship game. Though last year’s brutal schedule prevented the Aggies from “popping” under second-year head coach Jimbo Fisher, it may not be in the cards for him in year three in College Station either.

Why don’t the oddsmakers buy Texas A&M football one bit this season?

There are probably a few reasons why the oddsmakers aren’t quick to coronate Texas A&M as the next team on-the-rise in the SEC. First, nothing in their recent history, in the SEC or back in the Big 12, indicates this is a stand-up football program. Second, they still have a pretty tough 10-game SEC schedule. And three, they might have a good quarterback, so does more than half of the SEC.

2020 SEC West division title odds

• Alabama Crimson Tide: -240
• LSU Tigers: +300
• Auburn Tigers: +600
• Texas A&M Aggies: +900
• Mississippi State Bulldogs: +1800
• Ole Miss Rebels: +2500
• Arkansas Razorbacks: +10000

As you can see by the latest SEC West division title odds, Texas A&M (+900) is looking up at the Alabama Crimson Tide (-240), the LSU Tigers (+300) and the Auburn Tigers (+600). Alabama was seen as the presumptive favorite entering the offseason, but the fight between the No. 2, the No. 3 and the No. 4 teams looked to be a close one. At this time, it looks like Texas A&M lost that fight.

2020 SEC Conference Championship odds

• Alabama Crimson Tide: -130
• Georgia Bulldogs: +250
• Florida Gators: +550
• LSU Tigers: +650
• Texas A&M Aggies: +1200
• Auburn Tigers: +1400
• Kentucky Wildcats: +6000
• Mississippi State Bulldogs: +8000
• Tennessee Volunteers: +8000
• Ole Miss Rebels: +10000
• Missouri Tigers: +12500
• South Carolina Gamecocks: +12500
• Vanderbilt Commodores: +25000
• Arkansas Razorbacks: +50000

Looking at the SEC Conference title odds, it’s interesting that Texas A&M (+1200) has better odds of winning its Power 5 conference than Auburn (+1400), despite having worse odds (+900) to win the SEC West than the Tigers (+600). Alabama (-130), the Georgia Bulldogs (+250), the Florida Gators (+550) and LSU (+650) all have better odds to win the SEC than Texas A&M does.

The big question here is why aren’t they seen as the third or fourth-best team in the SEC, in the same tier as Florida and LSU? A lot of it might have to do with Texas A&M playing four of the five best perceived teams in the SEC this season. While didn’t draw Georgia this year, Texas A&M unfortunately picked up a home date vs. Florida as part of its two additional SEC East games.

Another issue is Texas A&M only has two certain victories on the slate: Home vs. the Vanderbilt Commodores on Sept. 26 and home vs. the Arkansas Razorbacks on Oct. 31. Home dates vs. Florida (Oct. 10), the Ole Miss Rebels (Nov. 21) and LSU (Nov. 28) won’t be easy. There is even a worst case scenario where Texas A&M could drop all of its road games, although they won’t.

At Alabama on Oct. 3 is probably a loss and so is at Auburn on Dec. 5. Playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville on Oct. 17 is the easiest road game by far on Texas A&M’s schedule. Having to play the cross-divisional rival South Carolina Gamecocks and the Tennessee Volunteers on the road in back-to-back weeks on Nov. 7 and Nov. 14 could also be problematic for the Aggies.

Even though Texas A&M has an over/under win total of seven games this season, that’s the same figure as LSU and only tied for fourth-best in the SEC behind Georgia (8.5), Alabama (8) and Florida (7.5). Again, Texas A&M has to play three of the four teams perceived to be better than them this season. It doesn’t sound like they are favored to win even ones of those big games.

Until Texas A&M proves to us it can beat a strong team consistently, this is where they’ll remain.

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