Texas A&M, Iowa State have same odds to win their Power 5 conferences

Texas A&M football, Iowa State football are conference title contenders.

Don’t be shocked if Texas A&M football or Iowa State football win their Power 5 conferences.

While it’s not likely for either team, it’s still within the realm of possibility. According to SportsBetting.ag, both the Texas A&M Aggies and the Iowa State Cyclones have the same odds to win the SEC Conference Championship and the Big 12 Conference respectively at -1200. Texas A&M has the sixth-best odds in the SEC, while Iowa State has the fourth-best odds in the Big 12.

Who is more likely to win their conference: Texas A&M or Iowa State?

Before two of the Power 5 conferences decided against playing college football this fall, Texas A&M and Iowa State were in that group of 25 teams who could convince themselves they had a semi-realistic shot of making the College Football Playoff. Texas A&M’s pathway seemed a good bit more likely, but Iowa State had the look of a consistent top-25 throughout the offseason.

But now with the Big Ten and the Pac-12 punting on playing this fall, the Power 5 landscape looks completely different. The SEC opted to go with a 10-game, conference-only schedule, while the Big 12 went with the nine-plus-one model. Because the round-robin regular-season method hadn’t changed for the Big 12, one could argue the path to the College Football Playoff is easier.

So let’s look at these two teams’ -1200 odds to win their Power 5 conference, see how it stacks up in their league, look at their schedules and figure out who is more likely to come seemingly out of nowhere to be this year’s shocking Power 5 champion. Will it be Texas A&M out of the SEC or Iowa State out of the Big 12? Let’s find out now.

2020 SEC Conference Championship odds

• Alabama Crimson Tide: -130
• Georgia Bulldogs: +250
• Florida Gators: +550
• LSU Tigers: +650
• Texas A&M Aggies: +1200
• Auburn Tigers: +1400
• Kentucky Wildcats: +6000
• Mississippi State Bulldogs: +8000
• Tennessee Volunteers: +8000
• Ole Miss Rebels: +10000
• Missouri Tigers: +12500
• South Carolina Gamecocks: +12500
• Arkansas Razorbacks: +25000
• Vanderbilt Commodores: +50000

Texas A&M is projected to go 7-3 this year. That is a solid record in a 10-game SEC-only slate, but it’s not getting the Aggies to the conference title bout. They should have a good team, but their problem is they have to play three of the four teams ahead of them with better title odds: The Alabama Crimson Tide (-130), the Florida Gators (+550) and the LSU Tigers (+650).

2020 Big 12 Conference Championship odds

• Oklahoma Sooners: -125
• Texas Longhorns: +140
• Oklahoma State Cowboys: +750
• Iowa State Cyclones: +1200
• TCU Horned Frogs: +2000
• Baylor Bears: +2500
• West Virginia Mountaineers: +2500
• Kansas State Wildcats: +3300
• Texas Tech Red Raiders: +6600
• Kansas Jayhawks: +10000

Iowa State is projected to go either 7-3 or 6-4 this season. The Cyclones are clearly the best of the upper middle in the Big 12, but the question remains is if they’ll beat at least one of the teams ahead of them again, possibly two this year: The Oklahoma Sooners (-125), the Texas Longhorns (+140) and the Oklahoma State Cowboys (+750).

With their 10-game season schedule, Texas A&M only has two guaranteed wins: Home vs. the Vanderbilt Commodores and home vs. the Arkansas Razorbacks. Road dates with Alabama, the Auburn Tigers and the Tennessee Volunteers will be tough. So will home games vs. LSU and the Florida Gators. It’s still a daunting schedule, so doing any better than 7-3 would be wonderful.

Assuming a win in the non-conference vs. the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns, the Cyclones only have three guaranteed Big 12 wins this year: Home vs. the Texas Tech Red Raiders, at the Kansas Jayhawks and home vs. the West Virginia Mountaineers. Iowa State should be able to beat the Baylor Bears, the Kansas State Wildcats and the TCU Horned Frogs, but those aren’t gimmes.

What it comes down to for the Cyclones is if they can not slip up in any of those other seven games and win one of these three crucial games: Home vs. Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State and at Texas. Matt Campbell’s team has beaten all three of those teams once in the last three seasons. We think he can get one, but getting two this year might be pushing it. 7-3 feels pretty good.

So let’s assume both programs get to their first-ever title bout in their respective conferences. Texas A&M shocks the world and wins the SEC West. Iowa State goes 8-2 or 9-1 to earn the second-place regular-season finish in Big 12 play. Are the Aggies more likely to win in Atlanta or are the Cyclones more likely to win in Arlington?

Texas A&M would face presumably the winner of the neutral-site affair down in Jacksonville between Florida and the Georgia Bulldogs. It’d be a rematch vs. Florida, while the Dawgs would be yet another ranked team the Aggies will have to play. Texas A&M may be battle-tested en route to getting to Atlanta, but the Aggies might run out of gas vs. the Gators or the Dawgs out of the East.

Iowa State would be the underdog to one of the teams the Cyclones didn’t beat during the regular season in Oklahoma, Oklahoma State or Texas. From there, it really depends on the matchup. Oklahoma is probably the most formidable of those three challengers, but are beatable, as the Sooners nearly lost to Baylor in last year’s title bout. It’d be an upset, but Iowa State could do it.

Texas A&M and Iowa State have the same conference title odds, but Iowa State is the better bet.

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