Braves’ remaining schedule sets them up to run away with NL East

Are the Atlanta Braves about to go on a run with its remaining schedule?

The Atlanta Braves survived the tough part of their schedule at 18-12 through the halfway point.

In a 60-game, coronavirus-shortened MLB season, every game is precious. As with every team in the National League East, the Braves are to play all four of their rivals 10 times, as well as an additional 20 games vs. the five AL East teams. With only division rivals left and the sub-.500 Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox remaining, Atlanta has a chance to go on a tear here.

Could the Atlanta Braves breeze to an easy three-peat of the NL East?

Through 30 games, the Braves are 18-12 overall with the second-best run differential (+27) behind only the NL favorite Los Angeles Dodgers at 22-9 (+77). The Braves are 12-4 at home this year. While they are 6-8 away from Truist Park, they are 8-6 vs. teams with a winning record. Atlanta is 12-7 against the NL East this year and 6-5 vs. the three best teams in the AL East.

The Braves won their four-game season series’ with the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees, who are one and two in the American League standings. They also took two of three in their lone series with the Toronto Blue Jays, who would get in as the No. 8 seed in the AL postseason if the 60-game campaign ended today. It’ll take a lot of focus, but Atlanta can three-peat in the NL East.

Though they have at least one more series will all three of their division rivals, only the Marlins would qualify for the postseason if the season ended today. The Philadelphia Phillies can’t trust their bullpen, the New York Mets don’t have the offensive firepower and the Washington Nationals don’t look like they’ll have a chance at defending their World Series championship at all.

At Atlanta’s current pace, the Braves should go around 13-8 in their final 21 NL East games. It could be closer to .500, but it could be slightly higher for three reasons. One, Atlanta has survived a bunch of injuries. Two, the starting rotation has been makeshift at best outside of Max Fried since Mike Soroka went down. And three, the Mets and maybe the Nationals threw in the towel.

As for their remaining nine AL East games, three come on the road vs. the Orioles and six come against the awful Boston Red Sox. While Baltimore has overachieved to be 14-16, Boston has cratered to a 10-21 mark. The Red Sox are one of five American League teams with sub-.400 records at the halfway point, and World Series hopeful Atlanta has six more games with them.

Atlanta has an outside shot at winning 40 games this season, but should win closer to 35 or 38.