College Football Playoff predictions: Clemson vs. Alabama III on tap?
By John Buhler
The College Football Playoff has a spot open with Ohio State not playing this fall and the SEC stands to be the biggest beneficiary as they project to get two teams in the four-team field.
The College Football Playoff will feel different this year, but will probably look the same.
Though the four-team playoff will continue on as is, two Power 5 conferences will not be playing ball this fall, as the Big Ten and the Pac-12 are not competing. While that stinks for the players affected and their respective fanbases, it also ensures the winner of the three other Power 5 conferences in the ACC, the Big 12 and the SEC are getting in. So which four teams are getting in?
Here are the four projected College Football Playoff teams for this season.
The Clemson Tigers will be the only undefeated team through the regular season and conference championships in the Power 5. With a relatively soft 10-game ACC schedule and a plus-one vs. The Citadel Bulldogs, Clemson will be favored in every game it plays. Though they will be challenged more than once, Clemson only has two shots of even being upset this fall.
Because the Big Ten and the Pac-12 aren’t playing, Clemson will have more top 25 victories on their schedule than they would otherwise. They will be pushed on the road at Notre Dame (Nov. 7) and at Virginia Tech (Dec. 5), but will be undefeated heading into the ACC Championship game in Charlotte. Clemson defeats Notre Dame in the title bout to achieve a 12-0 and the No. 1 seed.
It will not be easy, but the Alabama Crimson Tide will prevail and win the SEC this season. Despite quarterback concerns surrounding Mac Jones and an inexperienced Bryce Young, running back Najee Harris will contend for the Doak Walker, as the Crimson Tide get to Atlanta as SEC West champions with only one loss, which will come at Death Valley to the LSU Tigers on Nov. 14.
Alabama will benefit from LSU and other SEC West division rivals having at least two conference losses. While teams like the Georgia Bulldogs (Oct. 17) and the Auburn Tigers (Nov. 28) will give them great battles, Alabama will cling to single-digit victories in both. In a rematch vs. Georgia in the SEC Championship, the heartbreak continues for the Dawgs, as Alabama lands the No. 2 seed.
It’ll be a wild, yet exciting season for the Oklahoma Sooners in the Big 12. With a new starting quarterback in redshirt freshman Spencer Rattler, there will be growing pains early before he truly finds his rhythm in Lincoln Riley’s offense. There will be no great display of this than the narrow Iowa State road victory (Nov. 3), followed by a rough neutral-site loss to Texas (Oct. 10).
With a win over Oklahoma State in Bedlam (Nov. 21), Oklahoma gets its shot at redemption vs. Texas in Arlington. A playoff spot is on the line for the two one-loss Big 12 teams. Texas fell on the road in Stillwater. We’ll get a Big 12 title bout on par with last year’s thriller between Oklahoma and Baylor. For the sixth year in a row, Oklahoma wins the Big 12, earning the No. 3 overall seed.
Somebody has to get the No. 4 seed, and this year, it’ll be going to the Dawgs. Kirby Smart‘s team will look like it belongs in the playoff throughout the season, as the play of graduate transfer quarterback Jamie Newman gives the Dawgs the offensive balance that has otherwise been missing. They won’t be perfect, but the Dawgs will get to Atlanta for the fourth year in a row.
After beating two ranked teams at home to start the year vs. Auburn (Oct. 3) and Tennessee (Oct. 10), it’ll be a schedule loss for Georgia on the road vs. the Crimson Tide (Oct. 17). They’ll play okay but will still lose by a touchdown or so. Georgia responds by winning its final six regular-season games, including over Florida (Nov. 7). Despite losing in Atlanta, Georgia earns the No. 4 seed.
The 2021 College Football Playoff will be the same four teams that made it back in 2018. Clemson hosts Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, while Alabama hosts Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl. Georgia keeps it close, but Oklahoma doesn’t.
National Champion: It’ll be chalk to the national championship game where we’ll get another epic showdown with Alabama vs. Clemson. Trevor Lawrence rides off into the sunset as a two-time national champion with both wins coming against Nick Saban’s Alabama. And for Dabo Swinney, he’ll match Urban Meyer, Tom Osborne, Barry Switzer, Darrell Royal, Walter Camp, Pop Warner. Bud Wilkinson, Howard Jones and Knute Rockne with three national championships.
Here are the first two teams left out of the College Football Playoff.
Notre Dame is the first team out at 10-2. As with Georgia in the SEC, the Irish will have double trouble with the best team in their conference. The Irish keep it interesting at home vs. Clemson (Nov. 7), but lose in the end. They’ll get to Charlotte but won’t have enough in the tank to upset the Tigers. Notre Dame’s strength of schedule gets them to the Orange Bowl, not the Sugar Bowl.
Texas is the second team out at 10-2. It’ll be really tight between the Longhorns, the Dawgs and the Irish for that last spot in. The reason Texas is No. 6 and not quite back is the strength of schedule and a second loss to two-loss Oklahoma State, who fall to Oklahoma at Bedlam and at home to Iowa State. Texas falls from No. 3 to No. 6 in heartbreaking fashion to the Sooners in Arlington.
Which teams benefited the most from the Big Ten/Pac-12 not playing?
If we’re looking for a handful of teams that benefit the most from the Big Ten and the Pac-12 not playing this year, let’s start with Georgia, Notre Dame and the upper crust of The American, including Cincinnati, Memphis and UCF. Georgia benefits because as SEC East division title punches the Dawgs’ ticket to the playoff, regardless of what happens in Atlanta.
Notre Dame benefits for a ton of reasons. In the Irish’s one season in the ACC, they emerge as the most formidable challenger to Clemson by a considerable margin. Playing in a conference title bout is fun, no matter if you have to split all that incredible ACC money with 14 other schools. Regardless, being the biggest midwestern team of note playing and thriving is a great thing.
As for The American, there will be about four or five teams battling for not just one Group of 5 spot in the New Year’s Six, but probably two. Though the Sun Belt and Conference USA could have a contender, the AAC will surely have one and very likely another. Look for two AAC teams to play in either the Cotton Bowl, the Fiesta Bowl, the Orange Bowl and the Peach Bowl this season.
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