Jayson Tatum’s in-between scoring is key to the Boston Celtics’ title hopes

Jayson Tatum has the chance to take the Boston Celtics to the promised land if he can fill out his scoring ability in the postseason.

With the Bucks looking fallible in the Bubble and other Eastern Conference contenders either faltering or unable to stack up to the Celtics’ star power, Boston certainly seems a candidate to bust through to the Conference Finals and potentially further this season. That’s the result of many things, including great coaching, depth at the most important position in the NBA, and the rejuvenation of Kemba Walker. But it’s mostly because Jayson Tatum has the chance to be the best player in any series the Celtics face.

Boston this season boasted the fourth-best offensive and fourth-best defensive efficiency, typically a clear sign of a championship contender. While they have holes (such as size down low), they have looked the part of a title-chaser in Orlando, thanks in large part to Tatum’s continued excellence. When Tatum’s individual offense is at its peak, the Celtics look incredible, and they’ll need it from him for the remaining three rounds if they truly want to compete for the franchise’s 18th championship. And because of the nature of the East right now, they will specifically need more consistency in one particular area of Tatum’s offense — the floater.

Why is Jayson Tatum’s floater so important to his offensive game?

Tatum shot a disappointing 37.6 percent on non-restricted area paint shots, and that number is 38.1 percent through five playoff games, per league tracking data. Those shots will almost always be floaters, though there is the occasional contested layup or short jumper. They are the one area on the floor where Tatum still struggles. He shot nearly 60 percent in the restricted area and an impressive 40.4 percent on pull-up 3s, but the in-between area is where defenders can beat him.

At the same time, all the East’s best teams defend the pick-and-roll in a way that necessitates taking advantage of the middle ground. The Sixers put up embarrassingly little fight in the first round, but against the deep drop coverage of Joel Embiid and Al Horford, the Celtics’ star forward still struggled to make floaters. Tatum will face a similar defense in this series against Toronto, especially when Marc Gasol is in the game (less so when Serge Ibaka is on the floor).

Three of Tatum’s 18 shot attempts in Game 1 were floaters, and he was uncomfortable. Despite demonstrated touch as a long-range shooter and from the free-throw line, Tatum doesn’t have the same mastery of angles and timing on floaters. The focus this year on Tatum’s part has clearly been to charge toward the basket as much as possible, but there are times when he would have been better suited pulling up for a floater and instead tosses up an errant shot.

On the other hand, when Tatum puts his head down and commits to taking advantage of open space when big men drop, he finds success.

This isn’t necessarily a surprise, because the same was true of his pull-up 3-point shooting, which would seemingly involve a similar read. Tatum took fewer pull-up 3s during his first two seasons and never made more than one-third of them. This year, Tatum took nearly twice as many pull-up triples as he did off the catch, and confidently stepped into one of the most difficult shots in basketball in huge moments as if it were in a layup line. As the clip above shows, when he does the same on floaters, he’s more than capable of making them.

That confidence will have to build during the playoffs. More than a quarter of Tatum’s offensive possessions came as a pick-and-roll ball-handler during the 2019-20 season, per Synergy Sports play-type data, and Brad Stevens’ drive-and-kick offense features screening all over the court to put play-makers in strong scoring position.

Whereas the thinned-out Philadelphia roster had a hard time adjusting, Tatum’s ability to hit floaters could help dictate Toronto’s rotation. When Gasol is on the floor, he’s going to want to plant himself at the hoop to deter shots. But Ibaka can hedge out to the perimeter when defending the pick-and-roll and even switch onto Tatum if needed. With the benefit of film showing the Raptors forcing Tatum into those deep paint shots, a version of Tatum who patiently takes and makes them could force Gasol into a lesser role as the series goes on and make the Raptors play smaller.

Should Boston make it past the Raptors after a convincing victory in Game 1, the Bucks will play an even more extreme version of drop coverage, daring Tatum to either toss up floaters or give the ball up to lesser offensive players. Milwaukee is dedicated to their scheme on defense, which puts Brook Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo in positions of strength. Tatum could tear it apart like Kawhi Leonard did in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals if he takes his floater and mid-range game to another level.

Of course, it could be as simple as Walker coming alive or the Celtics’ collective wing depth being too much for the rest of the East to handle, but the best bet in the playoffs is always that a supernova performance from a spectacular player wins the day. We know Tatum is capable of some amazing things on the basketball court — from ultra-deep 3s to spectacular finishes. But the in-between game, Tatum’s bread and butter in college and the types of shots he tried to erase from his diet in year three, may ultimately serve him well this postseason.

The improvements as a pull-up shooter and finisher have been massive for Tatum in his third season, turning him into an All-Star. But for the Celtics as a team to close out playoff wins against the Raptors and Bucks, Tatum will need to round out his offensive game in short order. He’s shown the ability to score on floaters at times, but the playoffs demand near-perfect performances every single night.