Fantasy Football: What is the impact of Leonard Fournette’s release?

Raju Byfield discusses Leonard Fournette being released by the Jacksonville Jaguars, and examines the fantasy impact.

According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter the Jacksonville Jaguars have released former number four overall pick Leonard Fournette. The running back is fresh off the best season of his career when he recorded career highs with 1,152 rushing yards, 4.3 yards per attempt, 76 receptions, and 522 receiving yards.

Jacksonville Jaguars fans are certainly up in arms over this surprise move. Jacksonville head coach Doug Marrone claimed they could not get any team to give up any compensation whatsoever for the running back. This move reeks of a team that decided they might as well go all in on the tank-for-Trevor movement after losing star players like Calais Campbell, Jalen Ramsey, Dante Fowler, and Yannick Ngakoue over the last year. This move is strange on the surface as they would however receive a compensatory pick if they held onto him and let him depart in free agency. Very likely to make it through waivers unclaimed, Fournette should be free to choose his new team as soon as tomorrow.

The Jaguars famously passed on Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson in order to draft Fournette because they erroneously believed in what they had in Blake Bortles. However, they also passed on running backs like Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, of Kareem Hunt, and other backs they could have added later in the draft in Aaron Jones, Austin Ekeler, and Chris Carson.

Fournette’s contract does not contain any offsetting language, which means he will collect his entire $4,167,338 base salary from Jacksonville, in addition to whatever money he receives from his new team. This means that guaranteed money may not be as big of a consideration as it would be otherwise. This should help to keep his market robust. Whether or not he is signed for a starting role is another matter.

Fantasy Impact

Leonard Fournette

Leonard Fournette takes a massive value hit as he awaits his new home. Jacksonville was the perfect situation for him in redraft, as he had zero competition for carries, and would have remained involved in the passing game despite the addition of Chris Thompson. We will keep an ear out for when he finds a new home, and provide further analysis then.

Ryquell Armstead

Armstead is the depth chart leader, and is expected by many to get the first crack at the early down role. Armstead was highly productive at Temple, most notably racking up 1,098 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on 5.2 yards per carry in his senior season. He offers little as a receiver, but Jay Gruden favorite Chris Thompson should have the role locked up. If Armstead can secure the early down role he could play his way into the RB2 conversation, especially during the bye weeks.

Devine Ozigbo

Devine Ozigbo may be the most talented of the early down options still on the roster. He ran hard while at Nebraska, and while he timed slower in the 40 than one would like, his game speed is good enough to earn him a role. Ozigbo put up 1,082 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns on seven yards per carry as a senior, but also chipped in 23 receptions for 203 receiving yards. He is the most complete back of the Jaguars early down options, and has been drawing rave reviews with Armstead sidelined in practice. Ozigbo could flirt with RB2 value all season if he is tapped as the Jags lead back.

James Robinson

James Robinson is an intriguing small school prospect from Illinois State University. As a senior he piled up 1,899 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns on 5.2 yards per carry for the FCS program, earning himself a UDFA deal with the Jaguars. He is an intriguing power back who could make for a solid early down option once he gets acclimated to the speed of the NFL. Robinson is the dark horse to emerge from this backfield as the lead back, but he should not be counted out.

Chris Thompson

Chris Thompson could very well end up leading the Jaguars backfield in touches. While no one will confuse him for a 200 carry running back, if healthy he should be good to haul in at least 50 of his targets in the passing game. Combine that with 100-150 carries, and we could have an upside RB2 on our hands. Unlike the other running backs we have discussed here, Thompson should be insulated from the negative gamescripts that will limit the touches of the early down backs.

Gardner Minshew

Gardner Minshew’s fantasy upside takes a hit with this news. It is true that he will likely be throwing more with no true bellcow on the team, but Fournette’s departure also means that opposing defenses will be free to key in on the pass. Minshew remains a QB2 streaming option, but he could be more inconsistent than originally projected.

Laviska Shenault Jr.

Laviska Shenault Jr. is a wide receiver, but due to his versatility he was already in line to take some snaps as both a running back and as a wildcat quarterback. One of the more interesting rookies in the class, Shenault has been gaining buzz as a potential three wide starter with DeDe Westbrook nursing a shoulder injury. We do not project that Fournette’s absence will result in a major uptick in carries, but the upside for weekly backfield touches is certainly enhanced. Shenault remains an intriguing WR5 option.