2020 NFL season is loaded, power rankings, Clowney signs and more
We made it. The 2020 NFL season is here, and it’s time to take a last look at what the campaign ahead has in store.
Football is back. Here we go.
On Thursday night, the Kansas City Chiefs welcome the Houston Texans into Arrowhead Stadium along with 17,000 fans. The scene will be familiar and yet wildly different. It will be comfortable and yet awkward.
Still, the 2020 NFL season is upon us. The storylines are many, ranging from older quarterbacks and dreams of a repeat to the new faces in important places around the league.
So what to watch closely this season?
Watch the Chiefs. While we almost always have high opinions of the defending champions, this feels different than most years. Kansas City brought back its entire core from last season, and has the best quarterback on earth in Patrick Mahomes. Andy Reid is the finest coach on said planet sans Bill Belichick, and the weapons are absurd.
No team has repeated since 2004 when the New England Patriots did so. Perhaps nobody has had a better chance since than these Chiefs.
Watch Tom Brady and the Bucs. After 20 seasons with the Patriots, Brady traded in blue for pewter. At 43 years old and coming off the worst season of his career, can Brady rediscover his contender status while vaulting a long moribund franchise into the limelight?
If Brady leads Tampa Bay to the Super Bowl — which it hosts — he’ll have the one-up on Belichick. Certainly, Brady won’t be low on motivation this year.
Watch Drew Brees and Philip Rivers. Two names, forever attached. Brees was the failed prospect with the San Diego Chargers before he wasn’t, albeit a season too late. Rivers had been drafted to replace him and did so in 2006. Since then, both have gone onto great careers. Brees is a Super Bowl champion and holder of myriad records. Rivers has a Hall of Fame case of his own.
Now, both enter what could be the final years of their careers. Brees is hoping to go out a winner, a la Peyton Manning and John Elway. Rivers is searching for his defining moment, doing so in the duds of the Indianapolis Colts. Will either of their dreams be realized?
Watch Joe Burrow. The Cincinnati Bengals haven’t won a playoff game since 1990. They’ve been wholly irrelevant for the better part of 30 years. Now, they have Burrow, the Ohio native with the dreams of Who Dey Nation on his broad shoulders.
If Burrow is the answer, the Bengals are set for 15 years. They won’t win immediately, but history says they’ll start winning soon. Find the quarterback, find the path to contention.
Watch the Packers. Aaron Rodgers is 36 years old and slowly declining from non-mortal to barely mortal. He’s now looking at his football mortality every time Jordan Love walks into the locker room. He was essentially given no help this offseason, save for the incentive to prove a mammoth point to the front office.
If Rodgers is great, the Packers will follow. If he falls apart, Green Bay might be wondering when it can move on, or how ugly things have to get for it to change course.
Watch Ben Roethlisberger’s health. If Big Ben can recover from major elbow surgery and be a force at 38 years old, the Pittsburgh Steelers will be a problem in the AFC. Of course, we’re talking a massive if. Yet if Roethlisberger can hold off Father Time, the Steelers have the ingredients of a contender.
Consider, Pittsburgh has a Hall of Fame quarterback, a potential Hall of Fame coach, a top-five defense and a fantastic offensive line. That’ll play.
Watch the NFC West. The best division in football might have four teams above .500. It’s a longshot considering the math, but it’s conceivable looking at the talent.
The San Francisco 49ers are defending conference champs. The Seattle Seahawks have Russell Wilson and weapons for days. The Arizona Cardinals may be the most improved club in football, and the Los Angeles Rams are coming off a down year in which they went 9-7. It’s going to be a high-quality brawl.
Watch Dak Prescott. Want to see conflicted emotion? Look into the eyes of Jerry Jones if Prescott throws for 5,000 yards and another 30 touchdowns this season. Elation and angst simultaneously.
Prescott is going to be paid handsomely after this season, with the Dallas Cowboys or elsewhere. After Deshaun Watson got paid $39 million per year (more on that below), Prescott will be looking to get $40 million+ annually, and with a good year in 2020? He will.
Watch the Ravens come January. Nothing else matters in Baltimore. The Ravens could go 16-0 and Charm City radio hosts and columnists will be chatting about its irrelevancy unless Lamar Jackson and Co. finally win in the playoffs.
Baltimore is without a postseason win since 2014. In Jackson’s two seasons, the Ravens have lost two home tilts, never really competing in either. Last year’s was a gut-punch, going 14-2 before being throttled by the Tennessee Titans. It’s all or nothing in Baltimore.
Power rankings
Top 10 starting quarterbacks to never win a playoff game
1. Sonny Jurgensen, Washington Football Team
2. John Hadl, San Diego Chargers
3. Jim Hart, St. Louis Cardinals
4. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
5. Roman Gabriel, Los Angeles Rams
6. Bert Jones, Baltimore Colts
7. Brian Sipe, Cleveland Browns
8. Archie Manning, New Orleans Saints
9. Trent Green, Kansas City Chiefs
10. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals
Quotable
"“When you talk about EDGE rushers, you want them to talk about Danielle and Yannick. I’m just glad that we’re on the same team and we can push each other each and every day. I’m pretty sure our friendship will build as time goes on.”"
– Minnesota Vikings edge rusher Danielle Hunter on the new duo in the Twin Cities
Few contenders have reshaped their team more than the Vikings. Minnesota jettisoned Xavier Rhodes and Everson Griffen, allowed cornerbacks Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander to leave, and traded away receiver Stefon Diggs.
Offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski also left to become the Cleveland Browns’ head coach, although internally, Minnesota believes the retention of Gary Kubiak will ease the transition.
Through it all, Minnesota enters 2020 as an intriguing team with ample upside. The acquisition of Yannick Ngakoue in last week’s trade with the Jacksonville Jaguars gives them arguably the best edge-rushing tandem in football. The rest of the defense is dotted with stars, including linebackers Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr, and safeties Anthony Harris and Harrison Smith.
Really, it comes down to the first-round picks. Can Justin Jefferson reasonably replace Diggs, and can Jeff Gladney become a top-flight corner from the start? If the answers are yes, the Vikings are more dangerous than ever in the Kirk Cousins era.
Podcast
Random stat
David Carr was sacked 208 times over his first four seasons with the Houston Texans.
Peyton Manning was sacked 195 times across the final 12 years of his career.
Info learned this week
1. Bears starting Trubisky as they refuse to admit obvious truth
In life, we all make a decision gone bad. The worst folly isn’t in the decision itself, it’s in the inability to admit it.
The Chicago Bears are giving a master class in avoiding the admittance of a sunk cost, starting Mitchell Trubisky this Sunday against the Detroit Lions. General manager Ryan Pace made the infamous choice of Trubisky over Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson in the 2017 Draft, and while it’s clear Trubisky can’t play, Pace continues to hold firm.
This despite Pace trading a fourth-round pick to the Jacksonville Jaguars for Nick Foles this offseason. After the trade, Foles’ deal was restructured, leaving him with guaranteed money through 2022. Weeks later, the Bears declined Trubisky’s fifth-year option. It seemed they finally moved on, only to come crawling back.
There’s a line of thought which says Trubisky might have significantly outplayed Foles in camp to earn the spot, considering the aforementioned. If that happened, Chicago would have been less subtle than an air raid siren letting everyone know.
The reality is Pace and head coach Matt Nagy can’t give up the fever dream of Trubisky at least being respectable, making the embarrassment of passing on Mahomes and Watson lessened.
It’s a waste of time, and the locker room has to be wondering when the good of the team will be prioritized over shame.
2. Buccaneers add Leonard Fournette, but does he fit?
Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and Leonard Fournette. Quite the haul in Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers landed the former No. 4 overall pick last week, signing him to a one-year, $3.5 million deal. He’ll compete with Ronald Jones for snaps, a back who has impressed this summer in Bruce Arians’ offense.
While Fournette’s name is considerable, was he the right move for a Bucs team trying to make a litany of new pieces work?
On one hand, Fournette ranked sixth in all-purpose yards last season with 1,674. He also caught 76 passes, making him a valuable release valve for Brady. And, while Jones is a nice sleeper for your fantasy team, Fournette has proven he can produce, notching a pair of 1,000-yard campaigns in his three seasons with the Jaguars.
However, Fournette may struggle playing on third down despite his ability to catch. He’s one of the worst blocking backs in football, ranking 43rd of 46 eligible runners across the past two seasons, per Pro Football Focus.
It’s a low-risk gamble for Tampa Bay, and worth the price with the Bucs all-in on a title.
3. The Titans make smart move in landing Jadeveon Clowney
Jadeveon Clowney finally made his choice. After a long, considerable negotiation, Clowney will play for the Tennessee Titans, passing on interest from the New Orleans Saints and Seattle Seahawks.
Clowney, 27, comes to Nashville motivated. He wanted $20 million per year entering free agency, per league conversations, and never got near the number. Ultimately, he’s getting up to $15 million in Tennessee, while hoping to reset his value and hit the market in 2021.
The Titans and Clowney appear a terrific match on paper. Head coach Mike Vrabel was on Houston’s staff from 2014-17, the same time Clowney was in town. Tennessee also needed a reliable edge rusher to pair with Harold Landry, and after the saga this summer with Vic Beasley, it was without one. Clowney fixes the problem.
Now, is Clowney a great player? No. He’s very good with an injury history. If Clowney was a second-round pick instead of the No. 1 overall choice, his career would be framed in a proper way. Name recognition matters.
Still, he’s excellent against the run, gets quarterback pressure and will typically notch at least a half-dozen sacks. He helps the Titans in their quest to prove last season wasn’t a fluke.
4. Cut-down day comes and goes without much drama
It seems most years, a handful of big names hit the market when the cuts start rolling in around Labor Day. We’ve also seen a bevy of trades in recent years at this time, most-notably Sam Bradford going to Minnesota and Khalil Mack being dealt to Chicago.
This time around, the biggest name was Adrian Peterson out of Washington. Of course, the lack of preseason games contributed to this, with many teams preferring to hold onto veterans as youngsters couldn’t prove themselves.
This also means a bevy of talented kids are hitting the waiver wire, providing teams with terrific front offices the chance to stock the back end of their rosters.
In a year filled with oddities and adjustments, cut-down day ranks low, but it’s still a good insight into how teams are impacted by the pandemic.
5. NFL sound will be different, but present at stadiums
The NFL is making sure home teams have some semblance of a home-field advantage. Sort of.
On Thursday, the league announced it will provide pre-recorded sound reels for each team, regardless of whether their stadiums will be partially or completely empty.
The catch? All recorded sound must remain at 70 decibels. That’s the equivalent of office noise.
One would imagine this helps powerful offenses, which now don’t need to worry about being in stadiums which routinely get above 100 decibels. In Seattle and Kansas City, recorded sound has reached over 137 decibels (Arrowhead holds the record at 142.2).
We’ll see if the NFL adjusts the noise level after Week 1, when TV audiences will weigh in on how it feels and sounds. Frankly, here’s to hoping the league cranks it up.
Two cents
Joe Burrow is starting for the Bengals. Tua Tagovailoa is pushing to start for the Miami Dolphins. And then there’s Justin Herbert.
In Los Angeles, the Chargers named Tyrod Taylor their starting quarterback last week. It’s no surprise, but it’s somewhat perplexing we have seldom heard Herbert’s name at all this summer. This even with being one of the team’s showcased on Hard Knocks.
For Herbert, the lack of noteworthy plays in camp has to be a bit concerning. After all, he was the No. 6 overall pick in April’s draft. In today’s NFL, a quarterback taken so high is supposed to play or, at the minimum, be breaking down the proverbial door.
When the Chargers selected Herbert, the idea was always to ease him in, especially with OTAs and minicamps cancelled due to the pandemic. Again, though, Burrow and Tagovailoa are starting and/or continuously impressing. Hell, even Jason Eason is making plays in Indianapolis. Herbert has quietly taken backup reps behind Taylor and little else.
Maybe the lack of headlines means nothing. Maybe Herbert ends up starting next season and performs like a star.
Still, it strikes me as odd we have heard so little about Herbert in comparison to his classmates.
Gambler’s Game
Love the Buffalo Bills laying 6.5 points to the visiting New York Jets this weekend. Buffalo has one of the most complete rosters in football, even if Josh Allen is an enigma. New York’s top receiver is Jamison Crowder, the best defensive player is Marcus Maye, and Adam Gase is the head coach.
Home-field may not matter much this year, but talent does.
Inside the League
The Philadelphia Eagles and tight end Zach Ertz are entering their eighth season together. It could well be there last.
According to a source, the two sides have completely broken off contract talks. The conversations have been characterized as dead, and while nothing is impossible, it’s very likely Ertz will play out 2020 on his current deal which runs two more seasons.
It’s noteworthy Ertz wasn’t paid — and didn’t receive a legitimate offer this summer — when tight ends George Kittle of the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City’s Travis Kelce were both locked on long term. Kittle had just become eligible for an extension after playing three seasons, while Kelce had two years remaining, mirroring Ertz.
So what’s the difference? The team believes fellow tight end Dallas Goedert can eventually replace Ertz’s production, per league conversations. In 2021, Goedert would be entering the final year of his rookie deal, when he’ll earn $1.8 million. Meanwhile, Ertz is scheduled to make $12.47 million, the fifth-highest figure on the team. However, the Eagles would only save $4.7 million by moving on from the Pro Bowler.
The NFL is a fluid business, and if Ertz has another phenomenal season, perhaps the Eagles reconsider their stance and make him a top priority. If so, it’ll be a stark reversal from the current state. At this juncture, there’s a real chance 2020 is Ertz’s final season in Philadelphia.
History lesson
Only once in NFL history was there a Week 18. It happened in 1993, when the league experimented with two bye weeks. It wasn’t without drama.
At Giants Stadium, the NFC East was on the line. The Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants squared off with home-field advantage on the line, with the loser earning top Wild Card status. The contest would be remembered for Emmitt Smith, who played through a badly separated shoulder and totaled 229 total yards in a 16-13 overtime win.
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Raiders and Denver Broncos clashed at the L.A. Coliseum. Trailing 17-0 and needing a win to reach the postseason, the Raiders rallied for a thrilling 33-30 overtime victory. The next week, the teams met again in the same venue, with the same outcome.
Parting shot
Good for Deshaun Watson.
Normally, I’d write his four-year, $111 million guaranteed extension in the “Things We Learned” section, but wanted to go a bit deeper. Watson has played for a franchise which has fielded one atrocious offensive line after the next, put an incompetent head coach on the sideline (and lately, in the GM chair) and traded away All-Pro receiver DeAndre Hopkins.
One of those things is enough to make many players scream publicly. You’ve never heard a peep from Watson.
You know what else you may not have heard? How selfless Watson is.
In 2006, Watson’s family was given a house thanks in part to Warrick Dunn’s generosity. In 2017, Watson partnered with Habitat for Humanity and helped 176 Houston-area families get a new residence in the wake of Hurricane Harvey.
On Thursday, Watson saw a news clip of Houstonians being evicted in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic. He used the power of his platform in hopes of helping them recover.
During the Saturday conference call announcing Watson’s contract extension, his family showed up en masse to show their love and support. Watson was overcome with emotion.
Watson deserved the $39 million per year from a football standpoint. He also embodies everything the NFL, and humanity, should always be about.