Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence uniquely positioned to win where past heavy Heisman favorites failed

Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence is the Heisman favorite, which hasn’t always been a good thing, but the Tigers star has an opportunity to buck that trend.

He’s been the golden boy from the get-go, winning a national championship as a freshman and marching his team to another title game a year later. For all that Trevor Lawrence has already accomplished at Clemson, the next chapter before he presumedly exits for the NFL after this season would seem already etched in stone — or, more fittingly, bronze.

The quarterback enters his junior season as the hands-down, no-question Heisman Trophy favorite, the surest bet to be hoisting the award (whenever it will be given out).

And there’s been no more perilous place to be in this race, though Lawrence, with the uniqueness and murkiness that’s part of this 2020 season, may be equipped to overcome what’s fell so many others.

Being the preseason Heisman Trophy favorite hasn’t often resulted in winning the Heisman but Trevor Lawrence has a unique opportunity to break the curse

Coming up short with heaps of preseason love is where Brady Quinn and Terrelle Pryor failed. Where Andrew Luck, Deshaun Watson and Sam Darnold came up short. All of them were the summer darlings, with odds to match, and not one of them left Times Square with the trophy in tow.

In the last 16 seasons, only Matt Leinart (2004) and Marcus Mariota (2014) have taken being the Las Vegas favorite in the final odds before they kicked off their seasons and turned it into hardware, and it’s not just that those early leaders aren’t living up to the hype, they’re more often than not falling out of the race entirely.

Since 2009, 31 players have had odds under +1000, resulting in one winner (Mariota at +425) and just five of those individuals finished in the top three in voting in Colt McCoy (second in the preseason, third in ’09 voting), Luck (preseason leader in 2011, finishing second), AJ McCarron (fourth-best odds in 2013 and the 2013 runner-up), Watson (2016 favorite and second in ’16 voting) and Tua Tagovailoa (2018’s preseason leader and eventual runner-up).

Those have largely been the outliers among those who headlined those summer odds, with Tim Tebow (2009) coming in fourth, Braxton Miller (2013) finishing ninth, Trevone Boykin (’14) taking fourth and Mark Ingram (2010), Matt Barkley (2012) and Sam Darnold (2017) failing to make the top 10.

Last season, Lawrence and Tagovailoa entered the season as co-leaders at +300, only for the former to take seventh with just three first-place votes, while the latter had one first-place nod in coming in 10th.

That’s the reality and the odds within the odds that Lawrence faces as he begins his bid to give Clemson its first Heisman when he and top-ranked Tigers open the season Saturday on the road against Wake Forest.

But in the strangeness of this season, what cost so many past favorites may be what helps Lawrence and make the safe choice the most logical and eventual choice.

There is an added wrinkle as the Big Ten and Pac-12 try to figure out if and when they’ll be suiting up, that we don’t actually know when the Heisman is going to be awarded. A note sent to the Heisman Trust asking about the process for 2020 was met with a reply that stated nothing has yet been decided, though it will be communicated as soon as it is determined. As of this writing, that’s yet to happen.

All we can be certain of at this point, is with the remaining Power Five championship games scheduled to be complete by Dec. 19, and the College Football Playoff’s Selection Day set for Dec. 20, the typical run of things have the Heisman ceremony come a week later is going to mean this will be latest the trophy has ever been handed out in its 86 years of existence. Or the Trust could instruct those of us who vote that we’ll be waiting until the remaining conferences have played to include its candidates (unlikely as it would subsequently add in the bowl games of those taking part in the fall, something the Trust has been adamant it won’t do), or there could be a second Heisman given out in the spring (which is even more unlikely to happen).

That’s just part of the absurdity this COVID-19-impacted season, in which the task of awarding the nation’s Most Outstanding Player is, in part, a matter of those left standing (if we assume voters will be following something close to the typical voting timeline).

We’re left with a race devoid of those perceived to be some of its biggest challengers in Ohio State’s Justin Fields — who William Hill had with better odds (+350) than Lawrence (+400) before the Big Ten’s start date was paused – and Georgia’s Jamie Newman (+1000) who made the stunning announcement last week that amid the pandemic he’s opting out of the season to prepare for the NFL Draft.

With no Fields, that means there are just two other players who finished in the top 10 in voting taking the field this fall in Oklahoma State running back Chuba Hubbard, who was eighth in 2019 and has the eighth-best odds at +2000 and Lawrence’s own teammate, running back Travis Etienne, who is tied for 11th in betting (+2500) after taking ninth in the ’19 voting.

That’s not to say there’s a dearth of contenders, with five other teams in The Associated Press’ Top 25 poll having leading candidates in No. 3 Alabama (Mac Jones), No. 5 Oklahoma (Spencer Rattler), No. 6 LSU (Myles Brennan), No. 8 Florida (Kyle Trask) and No. 10 Notre Dame (QB Ian Book), but not one of them has the name recognition or the spotlight on them that Lawrence will as the poster boy of the nation’s No. 1 team.

While that’s oftentimes meant a higher level of scrutiny and expectations that are unobtainable (hence the runs of out-of-nowhere winners like Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, etc.) in this climate and the insular schedules teams with the players with the best chances of winning, resume and reputation will only be heightened.

The SEC boasts six teams in the top 13 in the AP Top 25 and the Sooners’ Spencer Rattler will have to meet No. 14 Texas and another Big 12 contender, Sam Ehlinger, in a league with four ranked schools. As it stands, a date with Book and the Fighting Irish on Nov. 7 is the only game the Tigers have against ranked opponents before the postseason.

Chide the ACC for a lack of resistance, but is their expected march to another playoff going to be questioned when we can’t add the criticism of a weak non-conference slate? We think we know how good Alabama can still be sans Tagovailoa or LSU post-Burrow, but the fact is the SEC is probably going to have a drop off in the overall quality of play with two new starters. Rattler steps into an Oklahoma offense that has produced three straight Heisman finalists, but are we sure the redshirt freshman, with 11 pass attempts to his name, is ready to replicate what three veterans did in Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield and Jalen Hurts? Ehlinger has the experience, but the Longhorns QB also struggled last year vs. the Big 12’s top defenses.

Lawrence is the certainty and there’s equity in that. If Clemson is marching toward a third straight playoff berth with him at the controls, otherworldly stats may not be needed for the coronation. He’s been there and done that, repeatedly.

The star power, schedule and lack of a rival with true buzz have Lawrence already facing first-and-goal from the 10 in the race in a way that maybe no preseason favorite maybe ever has. Barring something truly remarkable from another candidate, the past is going to heavily influence the voting future and elevate the surest thing among contenders.

Lawrence is the face of the sport, and a collision course with a place at the Heisman table seems as preordained as anything heading into a season unlike any other.